Nvidia has made headlines as the first stock to reach a market valuation of $4 trillion.
This AI giant has provided impressive returns for investors over the last ten years, although there’s still some uncertainty about its future trajectory.
It’s clear that Nvidia is crucial in shaping the AI infrastructure of tomorrow, but the competitive landscape is intense, and unforeseen developments could arise.
Currently, Nvidia boasts a market cap of $4.9 trillion, making it the most valuable stock globally. For it to hit the $10 trillion mark, the company would need to grow by 104%, more than doubling its present worth. Is that possible by 2030?
Why Nvidia remains a top stock choice
Nvidia has emerged as a leading name in artificial intelligence, with its graphics processing unit (GPU) being essential to top generative AI applications. Analysts estimate that the company holds between 70% and 95% of the GPU market, though competition exists.
Moreover, Nvidia is releasing new products that could help it expand its market share even further. The company offers vertically integrated hardware and software that simplify and expedite operations for its clients. For instance, Nvidia’s CUDA software aids developers in utilizing Nvidia GPUs, data centers, and workstations that come equipped with embedded GPUs. Recently, they launched DGX Spark, touted as the smallest supercomputer globally—a fully integrated system that can fit on a desk.
While growth has inevitably slowed proportionally—something common for large companies—it continues to expand rapidly in absolute terms, and the percentage growth remains noteworthy.
For the third quarter of 2025 (ending July 27), Nvidia’s revenues saw a year-over-year increase of 56%. This performance is remarkable for any business, with total sales climbing by 73% primarily due to data center sales.
It’s worth mentioning that these figures don’t account for sales in China, which were paused due to government regulations. If the market opens up again, the fourth quarter could yield even better results.
What’s next for Nvidia?
Nvidia’s stock has surged nearly 1,500% over the past five years, translating to an annual growth rate of approximately 74%. This increase reflects the market’s recognition of AI’s vast potential, as it continues to reshape various aspects of our lives—like shopping, education, work, and entertainment.
Many investors are curious about how far this trend could go and what position Nvidia might occupy in future developments.
In terms of Nvidia’s trajectory, it seems unlikely that its prominent role will diminish anytime soon.
Although the firm is still introducing its newest Blackwell architecture, it’s already seen notable advancements, with third-quarter sales climbing 17% sequentially.
Additionally, preparations are underway for the next AI architecture, the Vera Rubin line, set to debut in 2026—primed to manage even greater data loads.
Can it reach $10 trillion?
Nvidia recently became the largest company by market cap and is the first to hit $4 trillion. From this point, it doesn’t seem far-fetched to consider a $10 trillion valuation, but is it achievable by 2030?
To see a 104% increase using the current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 30, total sales over the past year must rise from $165.2 billion to $333 billion by 2030. This goal translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of at least 15% over five years, which seems doable—even factoring in some slowdown, considering past sales have grown at an impressive annual average of 64%.
However, it’s also important to consider that an economic slowdown could lead to lower P/S ratios, which would necessitate even more substantial revenue growth to reach that $10 trillion mark.
A more plausible approach might involve a 10-year average P/S ratio of 18.6. In that case, by five years from now, 12-month sales would need to reach $538 billion at a CAGR of 27%. Given AI’s rapid growth, this doesn’t appear overly ambitious—unless a recession occurs.
So, could Nvidia become a $10 trillion stock within five years? I think it’s possible, but, as with any investment, there’s no certainty.
