Copper prices hit new peaks on Wednesday, driven by renewed worries about mine supply and positive expectations for a U.S.-China trade agreement. However, analysts are uncertain about how sustainable this uptick can be without a consistent rise in demand.
So far this year, copper, often seen as an indicator of the global economy, has increased by over 27%. This surge has also been aided by a weaker dollar—making the metal more accessible for other currency holders—and lower interest rates.
“The potential for a U.S.-China trade deal has spurred the increase in copper prices,” noted an analyst from ING, Ewa Mansey, who also commented that tighter copper market conditions are anticipated not just this year but extending to 2026. Many financial institutions, including ING, expect to see losses ahead.
On the same day, Glencore, a mining and commodity trading firm, reported a drop in copper production for the first nine months of 2025, following Anglo American’s lead and lowering its full-year projections. This added to ongoing challenges affecting mine output.
During early trading, the benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange climbed 1.5%, reaching $11,200 per tonne—surpassing the previous record of $11,104.50 from May 2024. By 16:45 GMT, it was trading at $11,190.50.
This month, the International Copper Research Group indicated a predicted deficit of 150,000 tonnes in the refined copper market for next year, against a total consumption of 28.7 million tonnes.
However, Tom Price from Panmure Liberum expressed that the key reasons behind the recent copper price spike, such as reduced trade tensions and a looming Federal Reserve rate cut, would likely be accounted for by Thursday.
“Some investors might pull back due to the absence of fresh price-driving factors and the fact that demand for copper seems relatively unchanged,” Price remarked. Panmure Liberum forecasts a slight surplus of 80,000 tonnes for next year.
Nitesh Shah, a commodity strategist at WisdomTree, suggested that speculative investments in commodities often slow when they become overly common. “That could also play a role here. We’ve definitely seen it in more valuable markets,” he added.
For instance, while gold has jumped 52% this year, it has also dipped about 8.5% from its record high of $4,381.21 per ounce, reached on October 20th.
Goldman Sachs mentioned earlier this month that they anticipate copper prices to remain between $10,000 and $11,000 in the 2026/2027 timeframe due to potential market surpluses, though the long-term perspective remains optimistic.
