A group of notable Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, is increasing support for New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill, as the competition tightens more than anticipated.
Currently, Sherrill holds a narrow lead over Republican Jack Ciatarelli in the polls. A recent Emerson College Poll/PIX11/The Hill survey indicates that they are nearly tied.
Democrats maintain cautious optimism about Sherrill’s chances of winning on Tuesday, despite the fact that no party has managed to secure three consecutive gubernatorial terms in New Jersey since 1961. In a move to strengthen their efforts, Obama and Senator Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) plan to endorse her this weekend.
“If the election is primarily about party loyalty, it should favor the Democratic Party,” noted Henry de Koninck, a Democratic strategist.
He pointed out that Democrats enjoy an advantage of approximately 860,000 registered voters compared to Republicans. De Koninck believes parties losing power after a presidential election often see a boost in voter turnout, which could also work in Democrats’ favor.
As Sherrill and Ciatarelli prepare for the gubernatorial election to succeed term-limited Governor Phil Murphy, the campaign is reaching its final moments. Recent polls show varying degrees of support for Sherrill, with an Emerson College Poll/PIX11/The Hill survey released Thursday showing her leading Ciatarelli 49 percent to 48 percent, within the margin of error.
A Suffolk University poll this week revealed Sherrill trailing Ciatarelli by four points, while a Quinnipiac University/FOX News poll indicates she is ahead by seven to nine points.
The Decision Desk Headquarters poll suggests Sherrill averages 50 percent of the vote to Ciatarelli’s 45 percent.
Democrats are seeing early indicators that could be promising. Sherrill often surpasses Ciatarelli in public opinion surveys, with some suggesting she could secure at least half the votes.
Mika Rasmussen, director of the Lebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, expressed satisfaction with the “early voting firewall” being established by Democrats.
As of Thursday, Democrats had about 221,000 mail-in votes advantage, as highlighted by Michael Prusser, director of data science at DDHQ. He also noted that Democrats lead in early voting by just under two percentage points, which amounts to approximately 7,300 votes.
Prusser predicted that Democrats would maintain a 240,000-vote lead in mail-in ballots by Election Day, while outspending Republicans by about 4.5 percentage points in in-person voting leading up to the election.
“The real question is whether Republicans can make significant gains this time,” said Rasmussen, who also served as a press secretary for former Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey.
“Even those most anxious among Democrats agree that Republicans are going to need a significant Election Day turnout to overcome a margin of 250,000 or 275,000 votes,” he added.
Democrats are also capitalizing on various national issues that are resonating in the campaign, such as the Trump administration’s decision to halt funding for the Hudson River Tunnel project, known as the “Gateway,” as well as concerns about ICE raids and proposed cuts to social safety net programs from Republicans.
Sherrill’s campaign, however, emphasizes that the overarching message concerning Trump is intertwined with key election issues: affordability and the economy. “The connection between the Gateway and affordability, along with President Trump’s impact, is crucial because his policies are driving up costs in New Jersey,” stated Sean Higgins, Sherrill’s campaign spokesperson.
“It’s not merely about opposing Trump; it’s about facing his negative impact on our economy and proposing a different direction for New Jersey—that’s Mikie’s focus,” he added.
Supporters of Sherrill recognize the likelihood of a tight race ahead, prompting engagement from high-profile surrogates like Obama, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Gallego, who are also backing Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, scheduled to run on the same day.
On the other hand, Ciatarelli has prominent conservatives rallying for him, including former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is eyeing Ohio’s governorship next year, and right-wing commentator Jack Posobiec.
Republicans feel buoyed by recent endorsements, such as from the Latino clergy group Confraternidad Latina de Pastores and influential Orthodox Jewish group Lakewood Verd, which backed Murphy in 2021.
Hoffman also raised doubts about whether an anti-Trump stance would resonate with New Jersey voters. “Her campaign feels very much like a federal effort focused on Trump, but property taxes and utility bills are really what matter to people in the state,” she commented.
New Jersey Republican Senator Michael Testa, who was involved in Trump’s 2020 campaign in the state and now supports Ciatarelli, argued that Democrats’ mail-in voting advantage is less significant than in 2021.
“Honestly, Republicans usually like to vote on Election Day,” Testa stated. “The outcome hinges on how many Republicans and independents show up for Jack Ciatarelli on Election Day.”
Passaic Mayor Hector Lora, who represents a city with a majority Hispanic population that Trump won, noted visible momentum for Ciatarelli. “He’s dedicated and present, eager to listen, and welcoming to all demographics,” the mayor, who supports Sherrill, remarked.
Despite this, Lawler believes New Jersey may be “leaning” toward Sherrill. “I genuinely think the state is struggling, and there’s a desire to return to a more moderate stance,” he said.
Democrats are making it clear that they cannot underestimate Tuesday’s election. “I’ve always considered the notion of a competitive race,” said Mo Butler, a Democratic strategist. “I think these polls reflect that reality,” he added.
