A new poll indicates that if Socialist candidate Zoran Mamdani wins the mayoral election on Tuesday, it could lead to a mass exit from New York City. The potential outflow could be unprecedented in U.S. history.
Approximately 765,000 of the city’s 8.4 million residents are considering leaving, with about 9% stating they would “definitely” depart if Mamdani becomes the 111th mayor, as reported by the Daily Mail, referencing research from JL Partners.
If they actually leave, it would resemble the populations of cities like Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, and Seattle vacating their areas.
Meanwhile, around 25% of New Yorkers—about 2.12 million people—indicated they would “consider” moving away.
Among those earning over $250,000 a year, 7% express a firm intention to relocate.
The poll reflects a broad anxiety regarding the 34-year-old council member taking over City Hall, emphasizing that a large-scale departure could significantly affect the economy across the nation.
“If that many people truly leave, the economic repercussions will be considerable,” stated pollster James Johnson. “Older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white voters appear to be the most inclined to exit.”
When respondents were asked to express what Mamdani’s New York would be like in just one word, terms such as “disaster,” “hell,” and even “escape hole” emerged.
Men seem more likely to commit to leaving than women, with 12% of men and 7% of women saying they would definitely go. About a quarter of each group is also contemplating leaving. Voters aged 50 to 64 show the strongest inclination to depart, as 12% are certain, and 33% are considering it.
Breaking it down by race, 13% of white residents and 11% of Asian residents indicated they would definitely leave.
Staten Island voters are particularly eager to vote, with 21% committed and another 54% still contemplating. In Manhattan, 6% are sure they will leave, while 20% are undecided. In Brooklyn, it’s 8% and 18% respectively.
Popular migration destinations include the Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee, often due to their lower income and property taxes.
At least 1.9 million voters are anticipated to participate in the election, likely exceeding the 1.5 million who showed up for the 2021 contest between Republican Michael Bloomberg and Mark Green. This could represent the highest voter turnout in New York City since 1969, when about 2.5 million cast their votes for liberal candidate John Lindsay.
As of Sunday evening, with early voting concluded, 735,317 New Yorkers had already voted.
With just 72 hours remaining before the election, Mamdani held a slim lead of 6.6 points over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, marking the narrowest margin since July.
The most recent Atlas Intel poll reports Mamdani at 40.6%, Cuomo at 34%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24.1%. However, the RealClearPolitics average still grants Mamdani a more secure 14.5-point lead, positioning him as the likely next mayor of New York City.
