A recent report from the Rhodium Group suggests there’s over a 95% likelihood that global temperatures will increase by at least 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
According to their climate outlook for 2025, there’s a 67% confidence level that temperatures could rise between 2.3 to 3.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.
The target to keep the average global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius was established by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to address climate change impacts. This treaty, ratified by 195 nations, projected, with 90% certainty, that global temperatures might climb between 2.5 to 7.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
Interestingly, the Rhodium Group’s findings indicate that the world might have sidestepped the concerning forecasts laid out in the Paris Agreement, credited to “advancements in policy and technology.” Yet, the report also stated that to successfully limit global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius, we must accelerate both policy actions and technological advancements.
The United States initially joined the Paris Agreement under President Obama, but then-President Trump withdrew the country from the agreement about four years later, in June 2017. President Biden reinstated U.S. participation.
However, on his first day in office, Trump exited the agreement once more.
Data from the climate change action tracker, a project that independently evaluates nations’ compliance with the Paris Agreement, reveals that, this year, China remains the largest carbon dioxide emitter, with projections estimating around 15,997.08 tonnes.
For the U.S., projections indicate an expected carbon dioxide emission of about 6,123.42 tonnes this year. The tracker has classified the U.S., along with Mexico, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam, as doing a “critically inadequate” job in combating climate change.
Conversely, China, Canada, Egypt, India, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea are assessed as making “very inadequate” efforts in addressing the issue of climate change.
