Republicans are currently facing some concerns regarding a notable dip in support from Latino voters, a group that significantly boosted the party during the 2024 elections, as seen in Tuesday’s off-year election results.
CNN’s exit poll indicated that New Jersey’s new Governor Mikie Sherrill (Democratic) garnered 68% of the Latino vote, while Virginia’s Governor Abigail Spanberger (Democratic) received 67%. This marks a shift from last year, when Latino voters helped propel President Trump to victory. Observers are urging the party to reassess its approach ahead of the midterm elections next year.
“Unfortunately, we’re seeing Latinos drifting away from the Republican Party, which could spell trouble for 2024,” said Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) in a video shared after the results. She pointed out that in New Jersey and Virginia, the Hispanic vote skewed heavily towards Democrats, with over a 25-point gap.
“This should be a wake-up call for us,” she added.
In New Jersey, the alarm bells are particularly loud. According to U.S. Census data, Latinos make up 21.6% of the state’s population, with Latino voters comprising about 16% of the electorate, as reported by Pew Research Center. In 2024, Trump had made significant gains in Latino-majority areas, but a year later, Sherrill is leading by almost 15 points in Passaic County, a region Trump previously won after a 30-year Republican drought.
Democrats also managed to reclaim support from Hispanic voters in Virginia. Spanberger won the city of Manassas Park, which has a large Hispanic demographic, by 42 points. In contrast, former Vice President Harris had a much narrower victory there just last year.
Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of the conservative advocacy group Job Creators Network, suggested that worries over immigration policy and living costs are driving this shift. He emphasized the need for ongoing engagement with Hispanic communities rather than just short-term outreach before elections.
Carlos Rodriguez, president of the Latino Action Alliance, mentioned that it’s naive to assume Hispanic voters will automatically align with Republicans. “We need to actively ask for their votes, even if it requires investment,” he noted.
Ortiz also remarked on the effectiveness of affordability messaging, stating that issues like inflation and rising living costs resonate deeply with Latino voters, similar to the wider populace. He observed that Republicans have made strides in these areas, such as reducing gas and electricity prices, yet feel Democrats have effectively overshadowed these accomplishments with their messaging.
According to the nonpartisan Unidos Pathway to 2026 poll, 53% of Latino voters cite cost of living and inflation as their primary concerns, while only 20% highlight immigration. The same poll showed that 59% feel their rights and freedoms are less secure than they were before.
Ortiz suggested the current immigration policies might be alienating to the Hispanic community, hinting at a potential regression overall for Hispanic interests. However, not all Republicans consider this shift a major red flag, noting ongoing engagement with Hispanic voters since Trump’s initial election in 2016.
Cristian Martinez, Hispanic spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, commented that Democrats have ignored Latino voters for years, leading many working families to reject their policies. Ahead of the upcoming midterms, the NRCC is already focusing on Hispanic voters, particularly in light of New York Mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani’s win.
The NRCC is rolling out initiatives in various House districts with large Hispanic populations, tying Democrats to Mamdani, who identifies as a democratic socialist. Republicans have previously successfully engaged Hispanic voters in Florida, where many come from Venezuela and Cuba.
Following the election, Trump traveled to Miami, criticizing Mamdani and commenting on the extremes of the Democratic Party. “Miami might soon become a refuge for those escaping communism from New York City,” he stated.
Rodriguez acknowledged that while this anti-socialism message resonates with some Hispanic communities, it may not have the same effect everywhere. “If you’re presenting that in New York City or Union City, I would be cautious,” he advised.
“Understanding the audience is crucial,” he concluded.
