2026 New York Gubernatorial Race: Tight Race Between Stefanik and Hochul
In the upcoming New York gubernatorial race for 2026, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik and the current Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul are nearly neck and neck, as highlighted by a recent JL Partners poll. This survey points to rising dissatisfaction among voters regarding the administration’s performance.
A poll conducted by JL Partners on November 9-10, 2025, involving 500 likely New York voters, shows Stefanik and Hochul in a statistical tie. When asked about their preferences between the two candidates, 46% favored Hochul, while 43% opted for Stefanik. The remaining 11% were undecided. With a margin of error at 4.4%, the results indicate a closely contested race.
Hochul’s approval ratings reflect a notable level of dissatisfaction among voters. Only 11% strongly approve of her performance, and 29% somewhat approve, while a significant 54% disapprove, with 39% saying they strongly disapprove. Specifically, among Republican voters, a mere 8% express approval of her leadership, while 91% disapprove, with a solid 81% strongly disapproving.
These sentiments are echoed in other independent surveys, like the Manhattan Institute’s poll from October 2025, which showed Stefanik slightly ahead of Hochul at 43% to 42% and boasting a six-point lead over Hochul’s deputy, Antonio Delgado. This lead is being viewed as unusual for a candidate in a state traditionally dominated by Democrats.
Regarding Hochul’s reelection prospects for 2026, a significant majority—55%—believe it’s time for new leadership. Only 18% would firmly support her reelection, while another 19% might consider voting for her again.
Stefanik’s favorability ratings differ among various voter groups. A statewide poll revealed that 22% of likely voters had never heard of her, 37% had a favorable view (with 25% viewing her very favorably), and 32% held an unfavorable opinion. However, her support among Republican primary voters is strong, as 61% view her very favorably, and just 12% have an unfavorable view.
This polling data comes shortly after Stefanik announced her candidacy for governor. Her campaign is focusing on issues like the economy and public safety, critiquing Hochul’s handling of taxes, crime, and the rising cost of living. As a former chair of the House Republican conference, Stefanik is attempting to build a bipartisan coalition and has garnered endorsements from notable figures such as former Governor George Pataki and Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox, along with over 30 state legislators.
The backdrop of this campaign features growing tensions within the party regarding Hochul, who once ran for mayor as a Democratic Socialist. Recently, she encountered public backlash at a campaign rally for Zoran Mamdani in Queens, where she faced rude chants of “Tax the rich!” and drew criticism for mispronouncing the candidate’s name. Notably, Mamdani does not support Hochul.
