Macroeconomist Lynn Alden’s Take on Bitcoin’s Future
Macroeconomist Lynn Alden suggests that a significant collapse in Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market is not on the horizon at this point. “We haven’t reached a level of euphoria in this cycle, so there’s not much reason to expect some kind of wholesale capitulation,” she remarked during a recent podcast.
Alden believes this cycle could stretch longer than anticipated since it isn’t solely influenced by the halving events—instead, it’s propelled by broader macroeconomic factors and increasing interest in the asset itself, which challenges the traditional four-year cycle theory.
This perspective aligns with other notable voices in the crypto industry, such as Matt Hogan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer. Hogan also dismissed the four-year cycle notion, emphasizing that the market is likely to sustain itself for several years.
Alden further noted that market outcomes tend not to be as extreme as people often predict. “It’s how these things play out that sometimes it’s not as good as people expect, and often it’s not as bad as people expect,” she added.
Despite Alden’s optimism, not everyone shares her view on potential downturns. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, expressed expectations for Bitcoin to experience a 65% to 70% retracement within the next two years.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since hitting a peak of $125,100 on October 5. It dropped to $80,700 on Thursday but saw a slight recovery to $85,710 at the time of reporting.
Market sentiment appears to be struggling, with many traders hoping for a robust year-end or even new highs. Some, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, anticipated a climb towards $250,000.
Alden pointed out that focusing too much on bull markets can be a mistake. She noted that investors shouldn’t feel compelled to simply endure a bull market. “Nobody owes anything to the bull market,” she remarked.
Looking ahead, Alden predicts that Bitcoin could rebound to the $100,000 mark by 2026, potentially reaching a new all-time high that year or, if not, in 2027.
