Market Update: EUR/USD Stays Steady

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading steadily around 1.1600 at the start of the European trading session on Monday. Major currency pairings seem to be gaining some strength as investors wait for the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data set to be released on Tuesday.

Market participants are particularly focused on European inflation figures since they could impact expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy. Analysts predict a rise in the headline HICP, forecasting an increase to 2.2% on an annual basis, compared to 2.1% recorded in October. Additionally, core inflation is anticipated to rise to 2.5%, up from the previous 2.4%.

In the meantime, the U.S. dollar has been reasonably cautious, given that there are expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve might announce an interest rate cut in its upcoming monetary policy statement next week. The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87.4% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50-3.75% in December.

Current EUR/USD Trends

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair trades at 1.1593, with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) remaining stable around 1.1577. The current price is slightly above this level, hinting at a potential short-term positive shift. A downtrend line from the previous peak at 1.1776 is still relevant, with resistance observed near 1.1606. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 51.8, which indicates a neutral momentum following a recovery experienced mid-month.

If there is a decisive close above 1.1606, the momentum could strengthen, potentially leading to a more substantial rebound. Conversely, if the price dips back below 1.1577, sellers might regain control. For now, the pair appears stable just beneath the trend resistance, with the flattening 20-EMA serving as initial support as broader bearish pressures seem to ease.

Upcoming Economic Indicators

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) assesses price variations in a typical basket of goods and services within the European Monetary Union. The upcoming release of this indicator will be on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, at 10:00 (Preliminary). Generally, higher readings are perceived as positive for the euro, while lower figures could be seen as negative.

• Frequency: Monthly
• Consensus: 2.2%
• Previous: 2.1%