NFL playoff scenario: Week 13 disrupts the rankings

December 1, 2025

NFL Playoff Picture After Week 12 of the 2025 Season

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season brought quite a few unexpected developments.

As a result, the playoffs picture has shifted notably since last week.

There’s a new leader in the NFC standings, a fresh leader in the AFC South, and, interestingly, some preseason Super Bowl contenders might be sitting out of the playoffs if they were to start this weekend.

Let’s delve into the details.

Current State of the NFC Playoffs

Here’s how the NFC standings look at the moment:

1. Chicago Bears (9-3)
2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

8. Detroit Lions (7-5)
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
10. Carolina Panthers (7-6)
11. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
12. Minnesota Vikings (4-8)
13. Washington Commanders (3-8)
14. Arizona Cardinals (3-9) – e
15. New Orleans Saints (2-10) – e
16. New York Giants (2-10) – e

Yes, that’s correct.

If the playoffs began today, Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears would be the number one seed in the NFC, earning a first-round bye. They secured this position with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Los Angeles Rams fell to the Carolina Panthers, resulting in both teams now having a 9-3 record.

With a record of 6-2-4-3 within the NFC, Chicago currently holds the tiebreaker against the Rams.

Philadelphia is sitting in third place, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers holding fourth, thanks to their win over the Arizona Cardinals. The Seattle Seahawks, after defeating the Minnesota Vikings, have also reached a record of 9-3. However, the Rams still lead the NFC West due to their previous victory over Seattle.

This week’s matchup might feel like a playoff battle. The upcoming game features the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Detroit Lions, both teams looking to claw their way back into playoff contention.

Based on where we stand, here are potential wild card matchups:

7th place San Francisco vs. 2nd place Los Angeles
6th place Green Bay at 3rd place Philadelphia
4th place Tampa Bay vs. 5th place Seattle

Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Saints, and Giants have all been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC Playoff Outlook

Now, let’s shift our focus to the AFC standings post-Sunday’s games:

1. Denver Broncos (10-2)
2. New England Patriots (10-2)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)

8. Houston Texans (7-5)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
11. Miami Dolphins (5-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
13. New York Jets (3-9)
14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) – e
16. Tennessee Titans (1-11) – e

Let’s start from the bottom of the conference and work our way up.

This week saw both the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans getting eliminated from playoff hopes.

The Houston Texans improved their record to 7-5 with a significant win over the Indianapolis Colts, but they still find themselves in a tough spot. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are knotted at 6-6, but the Steelers hold the upper hand based on their 5-3 record in AFC games compared to the Chiefs’ 3-4.

Interestingly, the Steelers have the same record as the Baltimore Ravens, yet Baltimore currently has the tiebreaker advantage based on their performance in common games.

Leading the AFC South are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 8-4 and tied with the Indianapolis Colts at 2-1 in division play. This heads to the next tiebreaking factor, and as of now, Jacksonville holds that lead.

This situation puts the Colts into the Wild Card position alongside the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills, both also at 8-4. The Chargers boast a strong 7-2 record in conference play, while the Colts are 6-3, positioning them ahead of the Bills with a 5-3 AFC record.

The top two teams are finding a bit of breathing room. The Denver Broncos took down the Washington Commanders, landing in first place at 10-2, matching the New England Patriots. Each team has a 6-2 record in the AFC, but the Broncos edge ahead in the tiebreaker due to better performance against common opponents this season, including their games against the Bengals, Raiders, Giants, Jets, and Titans.

Denver has faced all these teams and remains undefeated at 5-0 against them, with one more game pending against the Raiders.

On the other hand, New England has secured wins against Tennessee, Cincinnati, and the Jets. They still have one more game against the Jets and another against the Giants later tonight. However, they did drop a game to the Raiders in Week 1, bringing their record against common opponents to 3-1.

I guess for now, it’s the Broncos holding down that top seed.

If the Patriots win against the Giants tonight, they would leap into first place with an 11-2 record, pushing the Broncos back to second.

Here’s what the potential wild card matchups might look like:

7th place Buffalo vs. 2nd place New England
6th place Indianapolis vs. 3rd place Jacksonville
5th place Los Angeles vs. 4th place Baltimore

So, if New England pulls off a victory tonight, the playoff picture will definitely look different, with the Patriots climbing to first and the Broncos facing the Bills.