Swalwell and Porter Lead in Gubernatorial Race
Recent polling indicates that California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter are at the forefront of their party’s candidates for the state’s 2026 gubernatorial election.
The Emerson College Poll, along with Inside California Politics, released their findings on Thursday, identifying Swalwell and Porter as the top contenders among eight potential candidates for the governorship. However, the landscape shows two Republican candidates are currently leading.
In the current landscape, Republican Chad Bianco, the Sheriff of Riverside County, stands out with 13% support. Swalwell follows closely with 12%, while former Fox News host Steve Hilton also garners 12%. Porter sits at 11%, with a notable 31% of voters still undecided.
While Porter trails Swalwell in overall numbers, she does have a 30% favorability rating. Yet, 37% of respondents either don’t know much about her or are unfamiliar with her altogether, and 34% hold an unfavorable view. For Swalwell, his favorability is lower at 24%, with 53% of people not knowing him well or having never heard of him, and 23% viewing him unfavorably.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball pointed out that California is gearing up for a major statewide election with the passage of Prop. 50, yet a clear leader for the 2026 gubernatorial primary has not yet materialized. Initially, Swalwell shared the Democratic vote with Porter, as 20% supported Swalwell compared to 17% for Porter; Republicans were more divided with Bianco at 33% and Hilton at 30%, and a significant 45% of independents were undecided.
The current Democratic Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, has an approval rating of 47% versus a disapproval rating of 39%. His backing can play a significant role in swaying Democratic votes, with 33% of voters stating his support would encourage them to vote for a candidate, while another 33% indicated it would discourage them, and 35% said it would have no impact.
Swalwell entered the race formally on November 21 during an appearance on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” while Porter has been campaigning since March.
This new poll follows a Berkeley Institute of Government study from November 7, which had shown Porter dropping by 6 points with Bianco leading the pack. The new data arrives amid media scrutiny of Porter, with footage of his confrontations with reporters and former staffers gaining traction online.
The Emerson College Poll and California Internal Politics Survey were conducted on December 1 and 2 among 1,000 registered voters in California. Of these, 567 were specifically focused on the Democratic primary, and 339 were likely Republican primary voters. The polling utilized mobile voter lists for outreach and online panels to gather responses, with a margin of error of approximately ±3 percentage points.
