The College Football Playoff lineup for the 2025-26 season was confirmed on Sunday, showcasing the 12 teams vying for the coveted trophy in Miami on January 19.
Last year’s playoffs didn’t see any surprises until the quarterfinals, which meant lower-seeded teams were swiftly eliminated in the first round. With only one year of this format in the books, it’s hard to say if we’ll witness a Cinderella story akin to what we often see during March Madness. Could we perhaps see something similar this year?
As we approach the CFP title game at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, let’s dive into which lower-seeded teams might pull off some surprises. Here, we define lower seeds as those ranked between 9 and 12, meaning they face the challenge of playing at an opponent’s venue during the first playoff round.
1st Round Matchup: @ Oregon
James Madison secured a playoff spot thanks to an ACC tiebreaker, making them the fifth-highest ranked champion from their conference and one of only two Group of Five representatives. The Dukes had an impressive season, going 12-1 and enjoying an average scoring margin of 20.3 points per game, ranking 25th in both offensive and defensive performance. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III and linebacker Trent Hendrick earned Sun Belt Player of the Year honors, and head coach Bob Chesney is gaining recognition within the sports community.
Unfortunately for JMU, their path to the championship appears to be the toughest among all competitors. Under Dan Lanning’s tenure, Oregon has lost just three home games in four years, which makes the Autzen Stadium a daunting place to play. If the Dukes manage to overcome that obstacle, they could still face a challenging matchup against Texas Tech’s formidable defense in the Orange Bowl, followed by a probable encounter with top-ranked Indiana in the Peach Bowl. It’s a tall order, but they certainly represent one of the few teams likely to make a significant run.
First-round matchup: @ Ole Miss
Tulane, the other Group of Five representative, holds the 11th seed after securing a victory over North Texas in the American Championship. The Green Wave have emerged as a significant contender in their conference, spearheaded by BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff, who amassed over 3,400 total offensive yards and 30 touchdowns, leading to an 11-2 record.
Their first playoff game will actually be a rematch against Ole Miss, a team they convincingly beat 45-10 earlier in the season. However, the Rebels now have a new head coach, Pete Golding, which could shake things up. If Tulane navigates this first game successfully, they’ll be heading to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans to face Georgia. It’s certainly an interesting situation, especially with Sumrall moving to Florida next season, and the potential for Georgia to position itself strategically against a vulnerable opponent.
1st Round Matchup: @ Texas A&M
Miami’s chance in the playoffs stems from a mix of ACC tiebreaker drama and being selected over Notre Dame. Ultimately, the committee believed the Hurricanes’ record of 10-2 warranted their inclusion. They started the year strong with wins over notable teams like Notre Dame and USF. With standout performances from ACC Defensive Player of the Year Reuben Bain Jr. and an up-and-coming freshman receiver Malachi Toney, they show promise. Quarterback Carson Beck, a transfer from Georgia, has generally been effective but had a rough outing with multiple interceptions in a loss.
Ranking at No. 10, Miami appears poised to be a potential upset artist this postseason. They’re built to be competitive against Texas A&M, a team also in the top 10. However, the outlook against Georgia in the semifinals could be tricky since their staff is well aware of Beck’s weaknesses; yet, if they can overcome that, the allure of a national title for the first time in 24 years may be within their reach.
1st Round Matchup: @ Oklahoma
Alabama, the only three-loss team making the playoff, stirred significant debate over their inclusion. Starting slow, they fell 14 points behind Florida State initially and, although they rallied with eight consecutive wins, including a substantial win against Georgia State, they ultimately lost in the SEC Championship Game. Throughout the season, the Tide showed promise but struggled at times, especially in rushing, ranking near the bottom in the nation.
Their next challenge is against Oklahoma State, who narrowly defeated them earlier in the season. While it’s going to be tough, if Alabama manages to advance, they could be facing even stiffer competition against either Indiana or Texas Tech. With running back Jam Miller potentially back for the playoffs, a surge in their ground game will be vital if they hope to reach Miami.
