Democratic Party’s Shift Towards Ranked-Choice Voting
If you think Democrats seem extreme now, just wait until they implement ranked-choice voting. Some party activists are pushing for reforms that could pull presidential candidates even further to the left, setting up a tougher ideological challenge for the establishment.
According to various reports, activists and officials within the Democratic Party are advocating for ranked-choice voting in the 2028 presidential primaries. The movement is gaining traction, as party leaders met with supporters like Rep. Jamie Raskin and pollster Celinda Lake in recent discussions.
Implementing ranked-choice voting could significantly speed up an already existing trend of shifting Democrats towards more extreme positions.
Historically, Democrats have distanced their presidential candidates from the party leadership, particularly on the issue of ranked voting. Some states, like Maine and Alaska, have already adopted it, along with cities such as New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco.
Ranked-choice voting has various formats. For instance, in New York City’s model, voters can rank up to five candidates. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated, and their supporters’ second-choice votes are then redistributed. This process continues until a majority is reached.
If Democratic voters behave rationally, they would likely rank candidates from the most extreme to the least. This may repeatedly favor far-left candidates, as votes for less popular candidates shift upwards.
This structural advantage could lead to both increased demand and supply for extreme candidates. Candidates with fewer ideological advantages might feel more compelled to run, knowing their supporters could have a significant impact. Proponents of ranked-choice voting argue that it expands voter participation.
By giving voters numerous options, it could help form coalitions. Candidates might aim to appeal to voters’ second and third choices, making negotiations more public rather than confined to back rooms.
The pressing question remains: Why would ranked-choice voting encourage more extremism among Democrats? The system seems to reward voters casting close votes, and in today’s Democratic landscape, “marginal” tends to mean “more leftist.”
Changes in party ideology have been evident. A Gallup poll from 2023 indicates that 54% of Democrats identify as liberal, marking a peak for that demographic. Notably, support for Democratic Socialists in major city mayoral primaries underscores how quickly the party’s activist base has moved leftward. Back in 1995, liberals and conservatives each represented about 25% of the party. Fast forward thirty years, and conservatives now account for just 10%.
Exit poll data reveal a similar trend. In 2024, 91% of self-identified liberals voted for Kamala Harris, while only 9% of conservatives did.
Projecting this trend raises concerns. In major urban centers, extreme candidates are increasingly succeeding in Democratic primaries. These areas often lead in statewide Democratic representation. Importantly, only Democrats participate in these closed primaries, meaning the committed activist left has already influenced the field. Ranked voting would further amplify their sway. The same voters who backed Democratic Socialists in places like New York and Seattle would have significant power in presidential elections.
Consider how the 2020 Democratic primary might have unfolded under ranked-choice voting. Joe Biden, a moderate candidate, would have confronted opponents like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, having to navigate a system designed by some of the most ideologically driven voters in his party.
This trend isn’t entirely new. Democratic nomination rules changed in 1972, leading to a beneficial shift; however, since then, the party has continued to diminish the establishment’s influence. Implementing ranked voting could drastically quicken that evolution.
Currently, only 36% of the party identifies as moderate. Given this context, how might the remaining moderates or establishment Democrats fare in a ranked-choice system increasingly dominated by the party’s left?
Ranked-choice voting seems likely to hasten a trend that already pulls Democrats further left. The main question is how long it will take the party to adopt this system and, if they do, whether they can maintain their national viability.
