The biggest issue in sports? Predictability. When the divide between good and bad teams is so stark, it brings a sort of heaviness to the entire league. We find ourselves just hoping for an upset, but deep down, it feels like the Dodgers are already set to win another World Series. It really takes the enjoyment out of watching and sometimes—even—has folks online claiming the whole thing is scripted.
Now, let’s talk about the NFL this year. It’s been a whirlwind, honestly. There’s a lot of confusion, and it’s, well, a bit maddening. As we head into week 15, believe it or not, no team has cemented its playoff spot yet. There are five teams in both the NFC and AFC that have a strong chance—95%—of making it, but even top squads are still dealing with the uncertainty of the season.
On the flip side, only nine teams have been knocked out of playoff contention, which is pretty strange for football. Usually, in soccer, most playoff spots are secured by this point, leaving only a handful of teams still in the race.
As we dive into Week 15, here’s how the 2024 playoffs are shaping up:
- Chiefs: 12-1 (1st round bye, AFC West Champions)
- Bills: 10-3 (AFC East Champions)
- Steelers: 10-3
- Texans: 8-5
- Ravens: 8-5
- Chargers: 8-5
- Broncos: 8-5
Three teams—the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals—are still in the mix for qualification.
- Lions: 12-1 (qualified)
- Eagles: 11-2 (qualified)
- Seahawks: 8-5
- Buccaneers: 7-6
- Vikings: 11-2
- Packers: 9-4
- Commanders: 8-5
Eight teams also have a chance to qualify: the Rams, Falcons, Cardinals, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, and Panthers.
So, what sets this season apart from next year isn’t just the number of teams headed to the playoffs. It’s how closely matched the top and bottom teams are. Last year, the Chiefs and Bills had significant leads in their divisions, with lots of gaps. The Eagles hadn’t even clinched the NFC East, still holding a comfortable margin.
Right now, everything is very much in flux. The biggest gap in the divisions is just two games between the AFC East and AFC West. Surprisingly, across the league, five divisions have opponents that are within just a game of each other. The coming weeks will determine nearly everything—division winners, playoff spots, and home-field advantages. It’s not just about speculation anymore; teams need to go all out.
One recurring theme this season is the idea that “no one is good.” I’ll admit, I’ve thought that too. We often look at it with a pessimistic lens. But what if we flipped that? Maybe it’s that everyone is pretty decent. Sure, teams like the Titans, Raiders, Jets, and Browns might not be great, but there’s a lot of talent elsewhere. Talent is becoming more widespread, particularly on defense, which makes individual excellence harder to spot.
- Nine teams are allowing 4.0 yards or less per carry (this should go down to 3 yards in 2024).
- Thirteen teams are permitting 6.0 yards or less per pass attempt (up from 10 teams in 2024).
- 29.5% of drives finish with a score (that’s down from 38.8% in 2024).
- Quarterbacks are completing about 64% of passes (a slight drop from 65%).
Interestingly, this is occurring while the average pressure rate on quarterbacks is declining. They’re facing less pressure than last year but completing passes at a similar pace. Still, there are fewer explosive plays, missed tackles, and points overall. It seems that not just the fundamentals have been enhanced; defenses are improving as well. This isn’t merely about poor performance—it’s about teams elevating their game across the board.
This unpredictability contributes to the excitement of the current season. Quarterbacks are finding passing windows shrinking, emphasizing skill more than ever. The same goes for running backs—vision is emerging as more critical than pure power.
All these changes across the NFL mean that every team has a fighting chance each week. Coaching and strategy are going to weigh more significantly in 2025 than in previous years, aligning closer to the NFL’s vision.
So, let’s just enjoy the journey. True, the unpredictability is the new norm, and it adds a certain thrill to games. It’s exciting to kick off a match not knowing who will come out on top. The drama of upsets, shootouts, and defensive struggles makes every game compelling. Each team is finding its path—there’s no single dominant strategy at play this year, and that’s refreshing.
This is the state of the season, and the outcome remains anyone’s guess.
