Concerns About Venezuela’s Future Amidst Political Pressure

As the Trump administration intensifies its approach towards Venezuela, experts caution that removing President Nicolás Maduro might lead to a successor who could be “even worse” than Maduro. This situation could potentially empower drug cartels, guerrilla groups, and armed factions that have deeply embedded themselves within the country over the years.

Currently, Venezuela resembles less of a centralized dictatorship and more of a fragmented landscape dominated by criminal organizations, Colombian insurgents, and militias loyal to the regime. Analysts point out that U.S. policy now not only contends with President Maduro but also an established network of non-state armed groups that could fill the power vacuum following a potential change in leadership.

Roxanna Vigil, affiliated with the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. national security officer focused on Latin America, notes that the trajectory seems increasingly binary. She remarked, “What happens next, in my view, depends largely on what direction this U.S. pressure campaign takes. If it escalates into conflict, the ability to influence future events will diminish significantly.”

The looming danger, according to experts, extends beyond just a stronger Maduro. It involves the rise of armed groups that already exercise control in various areas of Venezuela. Vigil warns that a sudden collapse of the current regime could be much more perilous. “There could potentially be someone worse than Maduro,” she cautioned.

Jason Marczak, from the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America, emphasizes that the power dynamics involve some of the most violent criminal organizations in the Western Hemisphere.

It may be hard to envision conditions worsening under Maduro, yet the goal should not only be his departure but also preventing those around him, who perpetuate injustices, from gaining power.

If key opposition figures like María Colina Machado or Edmundo González fail to fill the leadership gap post-Maduro, there’s a risk that dangerous individuals could vie for control if Maduro were to depart suddenly.

Diosdado Cabello

Diosdado Cabello has emerged as a formidable figure within the regime, often referred to as the second most powerful person in Chavismo. He wields extensive influence over the party and its propaganda and has authority over political enforcement and judiciary matters.

Cabello has faced sanctions from the U.S. Treasury and was indicted in 2018 for corruption and links to drug trafficking. Analysts suggest that his potential leadership could solidify control over party and state security forces, consolidating power under a hardline approach.

Jorge Rodríguez

Also crucial in the succession scenario is Jorge Rodríguez, the president of the National Assembly. His significant roles have made him a central figure among Maduro’s political circle. Reports indicate he has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for undermining democratic structures. Some experts warn that Rodríguez, with his skills in negotiation, could impose a more authoritarian version of Chavismo.

Vladimir Padrino López

The long-serving defense minister, Vladimir Padrino López, is portrayed as the backbone of Maduro’s military support. His loyalty ensures a strong power nexus between him and Maduro. Sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for facilitating the regime’s oppression, a leadership under Padrino might lead to a more militarized governance structure.

Delcy Rodríguez

Venezuela’s Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, represents a key political operator and holds sway in crucial sectors, especially the oil industry. The U.S. Treasury has also sanctioned her for dismantling democratic governance. Analysts believe if she were to lead a transitional government, it could result in stricter state control over both the economy and political institutions.

Cilia Flores

Cilia Flores, the first lady and a veteran of pro-Chavista politics, has maintained notable positions, including Speaker of the National Assembly. She faces sanctions due to her involvement in Maduro’s inner circle and suspected corruption. Her political influence could play a vital role in determining who succeeds Maduro.

Ivan Hernández Dalla

Hernández Dalla, who heads Venezuela’s military counterintelligence, is feared for his role in internal repression. Reportedly, he has sanctioned serious human rights violations under his command. Such actions could significantly impact any ensuing power struggle.

Experts like Marczak and Vigil stress that the direction of U.S. actions—be it negotiation or escalation—will heavily influence Venezuela’s transition toward either democracy or a deepening crisis. As Marczak puts it, “Victory is not just the removal of President Nicolás Maduro…it’s about fostering a transition to democratic forces.”