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Experts suggest that a blockade by Trump could be leading Iran to sell oil in the Gulf.

Experts suggest that a blockade by Trump could be leading Iran to sell oil in the Gulf.

Tensions escalate as US and Iran engage in conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, blockade persists

With Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino at the forefront, coverage focuses on the escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This includes recent U.S. airstrikes on tankers attempting to navigate the Iranian blockade. While President Trump has referred to earlier Iranian aggressions as “love taps,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio has acknowledged the growing U.S. response to threats against American interests. Former NSC senior director Michael Allen noted that over 70 tankers have been intercepted, highlighting the economic pressure on the United States.

Recent satellite imagery suggests a significant oil slick spreading near Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Experts believe this may indicate a collapse of Iran’s oil infrastructure due to increasing U.S. pressure.

Satellite data from the Copernicus Sentinel, observed from Wednesday to Friday, revealed the slick covering roughly 45 square kilometers west of the island, as cited by analysts from Reuters.

This incident may represent a significant indication that President Trump’s maritime pressure campaign is meeting one of its key objectives—overwhelming Iran’s export capabilities, thereby hampering their ability to transport or store crude oil effectively.

The suspected spill near Iran’s oil center raises alarms about how U.S. pressure could undermine Iran’s oil storage and export functionalities, leading to potential environmental risks in the Gulf region.

“There are two possible explanations at this point, though they could both be true,” said Miad Maleki, an expert in Iran sanctions and energy from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “One is that they simply weren’t reducing extraction enough compared to their onshore capacity and miscalculated how many tankers could get past the blockade,” he added. “At present, they may be overloading their export system with oil, pushing excess into the ocean as a ‘solution.’” He also mentioned that a mechanical failure related to aging tankers could be another factor.

As the Trump administration maintains its “economic anger” strategy against Iran—including enhanced naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz—the stakes grow higher. Previously, Iran exported about 1.5 million barrels of oil daily, largely to China. Increasingly strict tactics—including a naval blockade—are complicating the Iranian government’s ability to move oil from Kharg Island.

Reuters reported that the oil slick appeared as a “gray and white” plume off the west side of the eight-kilometer-long island. Leon Moreland, a researcher at the Conflict Environment Observatory, mentioned that the slick resembles oil, while Lewis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, cautioned that it could be the most significant spill since hostilities began about 70 days ago.

Kharg Island is critical, managing roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. The ongoing conflict poses substantial challenges for Iran’s oil revenue streams. Experts express concern that if Iran cannot effectively export oil or find more storage, it might have to curtail production—risking long-term damage to its oil fields—or dispose of excess crude in harmful ways that could lead to environmental problems across the Gulf.

The situation has serious repercussions. Windward, a maritime risk advisory firm, has estimated that the slick is moving southeast at a speed of about two kilometers per hour and could soon reach Qatar’s economic zone and drift toward the UAE in a matter of weeks. The Gulf’s desalination infrastructure, essential for millions, remains particularly susceptible to large-scale oil contamination.

The spill’s timing also coincides with escalating military tensions in the Gulf, exacerbating disruptions to global crude oil and natural gas supply chains.

Iranian officials have not yet made public comments regarding the suspected leak or its possible causes.

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