Jaguars at 10 Wins: A Mixed Bag of Performance and Potential

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 10-win mark for the first time since 2017, and the excitement in Duvall is palpable. Things seem to be aligning for Liam Cohen’s squad. Trevor Lawrence appears to be hitting his stride, the defense is stepping up, and the atmosphere within the organization feels boosty, almost electric.

But, are the Jaguars genuinely real contenders this time? Or are they perhaps one of the NFL’s more misleading teams, risking an abrupt exit come playoff time?

Welcome to the 2025 NFL landscape. Predictability is in short supply, and the Jaguars’ true identity feels unclear at best. They currently sit as the No. 3 seed in the AFC, leading the AFC South, gearing up for just the sixth playoff game in franchise history. They should be seen as elite, yet skepticism looms.

No. 1: Jaguars’ Recent Success, But…

Recent performances have seen the Jaguars win six of their last seven games, yet their early record stood at a rather bland 4-3. At that point, they were wedged into second place in their division—not exactly something to brag about. Losses to the Bengals, Seahawks, and Rams hinted at a pattern where stronger teams overpowered the mediocre ones.

The bye week seemed to rejuvenate Jacksonville, allowing them to average over 30 points per game, bolstered by a defense that made just enough stops to secure victories. Still, it’s worth noting that while the offense dazzled, the defense was also merely adequate. They faced a string of quarterbacks that one might label less than stellar.

• Geno Smith
• Davis Mills
• Justin Herbert
• Jacoby Brissett
• Cam Ward
• Riley Leonard
• Brady Cook

Aside from Herbert and Brissett, this roster of quarterbacks doesn’t inspire much confidence. It’s almost astonishing how average they’ve been, and yet even this group managed an average of 19.5 points against Jacksonville. Davis Mills even snagged a win! But honestly, that shouldn’t be happening in 2025.

Part 2: Trevor Lawrence’s Performance…

Trevor Lawrence is undeniably showing progress, especially after a six-touchdown game against the Jets. The offensive strategies from Liam Cohen seem to be clicking, and the addition of Jakobi Meyers has paid dividends. He’s introduced a much-needed vertical option that has livened things up for Lawrence.

Yet, we can’t ignore that his performance leading up to the Jets game was—let’s say—underwhelming. It felt like a lot of those statistics came from 60 minutes of what could only be described as garbage time.

Against the Jets: 330 passing yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs.
His averages for other games this season: 221 yards, 1.4 TD, 0.84 INT.

Without the outburst against the Jets, one might argue his performance mirrors that of Tua Tagovailoa or even Joe Flacco—definitely not what you’d want from a franchise QB. This season hasn’t yet been impressive, regardless of that one shining game.

No. 3: Defense Strong, But…

Jacksonville has excelled in one key area: limiting opponent scoring. They rank first in the NFL for yards allowed and rushing attempts. With a top-10 ranking in yards per attempt, teams clearly understand they can’t rely on the run against the Jaguars. They adapt, and it often leads to their undoing.

However, the Jaguars’ defenses have allowed plenty of passing yards, ranking 20th. They’ve succeeded in keeping opponents from scoring drives 32.6% of the time. The Jaguars’ fortunes hinge on turnovers; they’ve not won a game by more than three points, indicating vulnerability against average quarterbacks.

This creates a worrisome picture: winning against elite quarterbacks might be tough without major mistakes from them. Is this indicative of a solid defense, or just sheer luck?

What Are Your Thoughts on This Team?

This NFL season has been a curious one, especially in the AFC, where consistency is hard to come by. Unlike the more reliable narratives in the NFC, the contrasting standings in the AFC show several teams not performing up to par—think Chiefs or the entire AFC North.

This misalignment has allowed teams, like Jacksonville, to exceed expectations, surprising many in what has clearly been an unpredictable year. As the playoffs approach, the real test begins. When the postseason arrives, the lackluster performers won’t be there to exploit; it will come down to how they fare against the likes of Trevor Lawrence or Josh Allen.

Which brings us to a tricky question: Are the Jaguars genuine contenders or just fortunate to have navigated a bizarre season? Their journey so far is impressive for a team usually known for blunders; yet, there’s an undeniable element of luck at play.

In the end, though, no matter how deserving your success seems, luck can always run dry. So, perhaps it’s best to just enjoy this ride while it lasts.