The NFL Draft battle between the Giants and Jets in December has become quite the tradition, much like the Rockefeller Center tree lighting.
Both teams, unfortunately, find themselves among the NFL’s lesser performers, setting the stage for a potential No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Giants (2-12) are in a tie with the Raiders (2-12) for that coveted position, while the Jets (3-11) currently sit with the No. 5 pick.
The upcoming matchup between the Giants and Raiders in Week 17 could significantly affect which team is more likely to secure the top pick.
Here’s an overview of the odds and the likelihood of each team landing in the top spots.
2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds
| Rank | Team | Record | Strength of Schedule | FPI Odds for First Pick | Odds for Top 5 Picks | Expected Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giants | 2-12 | .536 | 10.6 | 55.8 | No. 4 |
| 2 | Raiders | 2-12 | .548 | 37.4 | 89.1 | No. 1 |
| 3 | Titans | 2-12 | .576 | 24.1 | 87.2 | No. 2 |
| 4 | Browns | 3-11 | .485 | 14.1 | 78.6 | No. 3 |
| 5 | Jets | 3-11 | .536 | 5.7 | 58.2 | No. 5 |
| 6 | Cardinals | 3-11 | .571 | × | 44.7 | No. 6 |
| 7 | Saints | 4-10 | .492 | × | 37.4 | No. 7 |
| 8 | Commanders | 4-10 | .506 | × | 44.7 | No. 8 |
| 9 | Bengals | 4-10 | .523 | × | 2.3 | No. 10 |
New York Giants Schedule
Week 16: vs. Vikings (6-8)
Week 17: vs. Raiders (2-12)
Week 18: vs. Cowboys (6-7-1)
The Giants fell to the Vikings at home in Week 16, and their game against the Raiders will heavily influence who secures the No. 1 pick.
Las Vegas Raiders Schedule
Week 16: vs. Texans (9-5)
Week 17: vs. Giants (2-12)
Week 18: vs. Chiefs (6-8)
The Raiders head into Week 16 as heavy underdogs against the Texans. Interestingly enough, with Patrick Mahomes done for the season, their Week 18 clash with the Chiefs could carry significant implications for the draft.
Cleveland Browns Schedule
Week 16: vs. Bills (10-4)
Week 17: vs. Steelers (8-6)
Week 18: vs. Bengals (4-10)
The Browns are likely facing losses in these upcoming matches, although the Ohio State teams may not factor much into the mix come Week 18.
Tennessee Titans Schedule
Week 16: vs. Chiefs (6-8)
Week 17: vs. Saints (4-10)
Week 18: vs. Jaguars (10-4)
The Titans will be underdogs against the Chiefs in Week 16, followed by a potential showdown with another team eyeing a top-10 pick in the Saints.
New York Jets Schedule
Week 16: vs. Saints (4-10)
Week 17: vs. Patriots (11-3)
Week 18: vs. Bills (10-4)
The Jets are expected to struggle against the Saints, Patriots, and Bills, especially since these late-season games are pivotal for the playoff aspirations of their opponents.
Arizona Cardinals Schedule
Week 16: vs. Falcons (5-9)
Week 17: vs. Bengals (4-10)
Week 18: vs. Rams (11-3)
Despite facing the Falcons and Bengals, the Cardinals have been on a losing streak. Thoughts about the 2026 season are already creeping in.
New Orleans Saints Schedule
Week 16: vs. Jets (3-11)
Week 17: vs. Titans (2-12)
Week 18: vs. Falcons (5-9)
With new quarterback Tyler Schau in the mix, the Saints are gaining some buzz and have three games remaining that could impact their draft position.
Washington Commanders Schedule
Week 16: vs. Eagles (9-5)
Week 17: vs. Cowboys (6-7-1)
Week 18: vs. Eagles (9-5)
With the Eagles vying for playoff placement, the Commanders are in a tough spot, especially with quarterback Jaden Daniels out for the season.
Cincinnati Bengals Schedule
Week 16: vs. Dolphins (6-8)
Week 17: vs. Cardinals (3-11)
Week 18: vs. Browns (3-11)
Even with Joe Burrow sidelined, it’s uncertain how motivated the Bengals will be in their last few games.
