Weekly Market Insights

This week, a few thoughts on the stock market and investment strategies have come to mind.

I’ve never really seen the appeal of the “Santa Claus Rally.” It seems to give financial experts something to discuss when the year’s news starts to wind down. There’s also this idea of “window dressing,” which involves fund managers making last-minute trades to showcase a more favorable year-end portfolio to clients. But, I mean, isn’t that just a matter of belief, much like Santa Claus himself?

The market wrapped up the year at a new all-time high, partly fueled by the so-called Santa Claus rally, contributing around 1% to this year’s overall gains.

Here’s a friendly reminder for investors: “Past performance is not indicative of future results.” But what if we framed it a bit differently? Maybe something like “past performance might likely reverse”? That’s essentially what Jeff Ptak explores in his recent paper. He looks back at how tech stocks, which have driven significant market gains, tend to affect sector performances over time. History suggests that sectors that outperform can often end up underperforming later. It’s worth checking out; it’s a really insightful piece.

In another analysis this week, Larry Swedlow tackles what happens when company stock gets caught up in retail investor excitement. Interestingly, it appears that insiders—those with real access to nonpublic information—are taking advantage of these price spikes to cash in, viewing these hype-filled moments quite differently than the average retail investor.

We’re also continuing our long-term outlook for 2026, this time examining the future of the U.S. dollar. If your U.S. stock fund isn’t performing well compared to foreign and emerging market funds that you usually overlook, it could be due to the dollar’s decline. So, will the dollar keep dropping? That’s a key point in our analysis.

As always, take a moment to visit our markets page for the latest news, stock market updates, and an overview of upcoming data.