Goldman Sachs Shares 2026 Commodity Outlook
The Goldman Sachs team is making some bold predictions for the commodity market in 2026. According to Daan Struyven and his colleagues, we can expect a theme centered around power dynamics and supply. They’ve described it as, “Let’s ride the wave of power competition and supply.”
So, what does this mean? Well, there’s a significant influx of new supply heading into the energy market, while the ongoing US-China rivalry, especially in AI and geopolitics, is heating things up for metals.
This trend is already becoming evident as we look toward 2025, where we see precious metals climbing in value, contrasted with struggling oil prices. Goldman anticipates this divergence will persist.
The firm identified five key themes:
- Goldman’s top trade: a bullish outlook for gold, predicting it could hit $4,900 per ounce by December 2026.
- Brent crude’s average price in 2026 might only reach $56.
- A significant increase in LNG supply, with US exports projected to soar by 50% by 2030.
- Copper is expected to stabilize around $11,400 as it prepares for the next surge fueled by AI advancements.
- Battery metals like lithium and nickel could be under pressure from Chinese supply.
Goldman’s analysis is straightforward. On a macro level, the competition for AI leadership and geopolitical power between the US and China supports positive prospects for strategic metals. On a more localized scale, there are substantial ‘supply waves’ emerging as new production capabilities become operational in the energy sector.
Here are some actionable insights:
1. Buy gold
Gold has been labeled as Goldman’s “single favorite long product.” They foresee prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by late 2026, driven largely by central bank purchases anticipated to average 70 tonnes per month. That’s a significant uptick compared to pre-2022 averages.
Interestingly, gold ETFs currently make up just 0.17% of private portfolios in the US. So, it suggests there’s still room for growth.
2. Sell oil
Goldman paints a bleak picture for oil, suggesting that it will suffer due to oversupply. They predict Brent crude will average just $56 per barrel, while WTI may hover around $52, both lower than current spot prices. They believe oversupply issues will linger until at least 2026, unless OPEC+ intervenes with significant production cuts or there’s a major disruption due to geopolitical events involving Russia or Iran.
3. Hold onto copper
Copper has recently experienced a significant surge. Goldman predicts it will stabilize around $11,400 a ton by 2026. They emphasize the demand driven by AI and electrification. Interestingly, if China begins stockpiling strategic metals, we might see prices supported even further.
4. Steer clear of battery metals
For those eyeing lithium or nickel, Goldman advises caution. China’s investments in overseas resources to secure its technological competitive edge may flood the market, driving prices down. They forecast lithium prices could drop by 25% by late 2026.
5. Natural gas: a global surplus, but not in the US
Goldman anticipates a notable increase in global LNG supply growing by 50% by 2030 compared to 2024. This suggests that gas prices outside the US might decrease. However, given the US’s position as a top supplier, they expect domestic natural gas markets to remain supportive. The market indicators are showing a tightening effect, potentially benefiting Henry Hub prices into late 2026/27.
Also noteworthy is that US electricity demand is projected to grow by nearly 3%, despite some regions already reaching or falling below critical surplus levels.
