Early Insights on the 2028 Presidential Election

With 34 months left until the 2028 presidential election, we can expect many surprises along the way. But already, there are emerging indicators about potential candidates and their prospects in the primaries.

Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, recently highlighted some significant developments. On Monday, he discussed how Vice President J.D. Vance is performing against other potential candidates like former U.N. Ambassador Nimarata “Nikki” Haley and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, based on a recent New Hampshire poll of likely Republican primary voters.

Enten suggested that Vance appears to be leading this field. He indicated that the current odds show that “no one else is even close.”

According to Polymarket, Vance has a 54% probability of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028. In contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio follows with just a 9% chance. These predictions are echoed in prediction markets, where Vance and Rubio are given 48% and 10% chances, respectively.

“J.D. Vance is like Mario Andretti, while the others are just kind of cruising along,” Enten remarked, noting the clear advantage Vance holds at this point.

Enten pointed out that Vance’s dominant position didn’t happen by accident, referencing a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire last October.

In that poll, 51% of respondents intending to vote in New Hampshire’s Republican primary indicated they would support Vance. Meanwhile, 9% plan to vote for Haley, 8% for Gabbard, and smaller percentages for other candidates like Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. Rand Paul.

On the Democratic side, polling suggests a more competitive field. Among likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, 19% would support former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, with 15% inclined toward California Governor Gavin Newsom, and 14% favoring New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Enten noted the significance of Vance’s early strength in this race and suggested that if he wins the New Hampshire primary, he could solidify his position as the Republican nominee.

While Vance’s lead is unprecedented for a vice president seeking the presidency, it’s interesting to note that the past five sitting vice presidents who pursued the presidency were well-received within their parties. This adds an element of curiosity to how Vance’s campaign will evolve.

As we move closer to the election, it seems that Vance’s initial momentum has set a notable tone for the race, but as always, many variables remain in play.