Potential Sleeper Teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament

You can’t expect every team to hold the No. 1 seed every year. Last year’s men’s college basketball Final Four saw an unusual lineup of all top seeds—only the second time that’s happened since 1979. Fewer early upsets in the tournament led to more intense matchups later on. While some say that NIL deals and transfer portals have dulled the magic of underdog teams, it might be a bit premature to make such sweeping conclusions just yet.

Traditionally, the Final Four often includes at least one surprise team. For instance, in 2024, No. 11 seed NC State had to fight hard in the ACC Tournament just to qualify, ultimately making it to the Final Four. In 2023, Florida Atlantic, as a 9th seed, reached the same milestone, while UW snagged the title as a 5th seed. And let’s not forget North Carolina State’s journey to the championship in 2022 as the No. 8 seed, or UCLA’s 2021 rise as the No. 11 seed. Clearly, surprises happen.

Here are some teams that might not slot into the top three seeds when the 2026 NCAA Tournament berths are announced, but could very well make a run for the Final Four.

Ryan Odom, who once pulled off a significant upset against Tony Bennett’s Virginia team, is now leading UVA in a new direction post-Bennett. With a talented freshman class, they’re adopting a more dynamic style of play. Odom’s squad has seen its pace increase—quite a shift from the slower Bennett era where they typically shot just over .350. This season, for example, they’ve recorded a hitting rate of 45.5 percent from three-point territory. The freshman trio of guard Chance Mallory, forward Theis de Ridder, and center Johan Granloet are making marked contributions. Mallory, though on the shorter side at 5-foot-10, excels on defense and intensely engages in possession management. Granloet is a formidable rim protector while de Ridder is hitting a solid 40% from three. Their offense has already reached near-elite levels, and as they gain experience, they could also strengthen their defense. This year has shown that UVA basketball still thrives without Tony Bennett.

The Atlantic-10 currently houses several strong teams, yet it’s risky to label any as For a potential Final Four contender too soon. However, if you’re up for a gamble, consider the St. Louis Billikens. Their statistics embrace the “Molly Ball” approach, focusing on layups, threes, and excellent free-throw shooting. Interestingly, St. Louis has the shortest average distance for two-point field attempts in the nation at just 3.7 feet—thanks to their game strategy, they largely bypass mid-range shots in favor of drives and three-pointers. With an impressive three-point shooting percentage of 39.3 percent, they rank fifth in the country. Robby Avila is a prominent player, having transitioned well from Indiana State, and boasts a shooting percentage of 44 percent from beyond the arc. Coupled with talented guards like Trey Green, shooting an eye-popping 45.5 percent from three, and Dion Brown, hitting an incredible 72.6 percent, they show promise. While defense remains a concern, their high-energy offense suggests that St. Louis could be an unexpected contender for the Final Four.

Illinois has faced its share of injuries but is now showing a healthy lineup that on paper, looks like a Final Four competitor. Early victories against teams like Texas Tech and Tennessee bolster this optimism. Currently, Illinois ranks highly in offensive efficiency, thanks to their ball-handling and scoring abilities inside the arc. The team includes skilled 7-foot twins and a promising freshman like David Milkovich. Freshman Keaton Wagler has emerged as a potential NBA prospect with his shooting skills, despite a less-than-glamorous ranking when recruited. The presence of veteran point guard Kylan Boswell and scorer Andrej Stojakovic adds depth. Yet, for a complete season, they must strengthen their defense.

Similarly, while analysts might not favor Arkansas—sitting at 23rd in efficiency rankings—they’ve only lost to powerhouse teams like Duke, Houston, and Michigan State. Freshman point guard Darius Acuff is blossoming with an impressive play style, even if he might not maintain his current shooting percentages. Additional depth is provided by Carter Knox and Billy Richmond, who are key to improving defensive efforts. Homegrown talents such as Trevon Brazil help in both finishing plays and creating space for three-point shots. Despite challenges, Arkansas is looking to build on last year’s performance, which saw them reach the Sweet 16.

Meanwhile, Kansas fans are understandably anxious about Darrin Peterson’s hamstring troubles. However, if he can regain his health by March, he has the potential to be a standout player during the tournament. They need other players, such as Flory Vidunga, who brings length and skill, to step up alongside Peterson. While there’s a solid supporting cast, it’s really all about getting Peterson healthy. They still have two months until tournament play begins.

Vanderbilt remains unbeaten and is ranked No. 11, yet many view them skeptically, citing the program’s historical struggles. Nonetheless, sophomore guard Tyler Tanner is emerging as a bright spot with his shooting and playmaking abilities. The Commodores have built a near top-five offense due to Tanner’s leadership, complemented by players like Duke Miles and Frankie Collins. This year might just change the narrative for Vanderbilt, which hasn’t cleared the Sweet 16 hurdle since 1965.