Winners and losers from the NBA Draft college withdrawal deadline following the major decisions of 2026.

The introduction of NIL has transformed the NBA Draft landscape. Each year, we see a drop in the number of underclassmen going pro, and more players deciding to stay in college, especially impacting the later rounds where a mix of seniors and international players fills the gaps.

The college withdrawal deadline for the 2026 NBA Draft plays a significant role in shaping both this year’s class and the collegiate scene for the next. Many players faced enticing options this year, and some decisions were unexpected. It seems that, often, the financial incentives in college can outweigh the allure of a first-round draft pick. In reality, the money from NIL deals often surpasses second-round salaries. So, how will the NBA adjust?

Now that the withdrawal period has ended, let’s take a look at the major gainers and losers from the choices players made.

Losers: NBA teams selecting in the mid-20s or later.

Draft classes are usually assessed based on the top-tier talent. By that standard, the 2026 draft is looking solid, featuring players like Cameron Boozer, AJ Divanza, Darrin Peterson, and Caleb Wilson, known as the “Big Four.” They might contend with the top picks from the 2025 draft. However, if we evaluate the class beyond just the first picks, the depth is diminished due to NIL.

Talent probably peaks around the 24th or 25th pick. Players like Stanford’s Ebuka Okolie, Santa Clara’s Allen Graves, and Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson catch my attention for early 20s picks. But I’m a bit hesitant about investing a first-round pick in guys like Duke’s Isaiah Evans, UW’s Taris Reed and Alex Karaban, or Louisville’s Ryan Conwell.

Let me clarify—there are always potential second-round gems. There will be players, perhaps older, less flashy ones, who might surprise everyone. Keep an eye on Tennessee guard Jacobi Gillespie, Arkansas forward Travon Brazil, and Virginia center Ugonna Onyenso. Still, it’s hard to deny that with several likely first-round talents opting to stay for NIL money, this draft class may not reach its full potential.

Tyler Tanner, a sophomore at Vanderbilt, ranked as one of collegiate basketball’s top talents. Although he had his fans online with his NBA forecasts, he didn’t manage to catch the attention of NBA scouts. He ultimately opted to withdraw from the draft and appears poised to be among the best players returning next season, allowing Vanderbilt to entertain dreams of a deeper tournament run.

There are actually fewer than 15 men’s college teams that might top this group as the season evolves.

In my personal take on the mock draft, I had Tanner in the late first round. So, the draft-eligible class’s loss cleverly turns into Vanderbilt’s benefit.

Tounde Yesufu entered his freshman year at Baylor as a prospective lottery choice. Although he posted decent stats, the doubts around his shooting and playmaking could have relegated him to a second-round selection. For players with at least three years left before eligibility, the financial rewards tend to favor staying in college. Yesufu made the choice to return.

Upon withdrawing from the draft, Yesufu also announced a transfer to St. John’s, where he sees himself fitting in as a crucial piece on a team aiming for a top-10 ranking, maybe even better, in preseason polls.

St. John’s does have some questions to answer, but the roster is rich in talent. With Rick Pitino nearing his 74th birthday, he’s eager to take one last shot at the Final Four. Yesufu’s addition bolsters that aspiration.

If Yesufu can enhance his three-point shooting and creativity, there’s a chance he might become a top-20 pick in a weaker 2027 draft.

So, it appears to be a bit of a win-win situation with Tyler Tanner returning to school. Meanwhile, Allen Graves opting to stay in the draft is a substantial win for the analytics-focused crowd.

Graves, a robust sixth man from Santa Clara with a knack for fouls, has established himself as a defensive powerhouse in college basketball while impressively hitting 40 percent of his threes. His remarkable near 10% stock rate (combining steal and block rates) alongside strong rebounding and spacing makes him stand out. His emergence as an NBA candidate was originally highlighted by some savvy analytics followers on Twitter. The NBA’s interest ultimately helped convince him to remain in the draft.

Graves is likely to be picked in the 20s, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he tumbles into the late teens.

The standout retention decision this draft season was Core Pete. After an impressive start against Florida, he had a rough time maintaining that level throughout the season. His inconsistent three-point shooting raised eyebrows, leading many to predict he would return for another year. Surprisingly, Pete opted to enter the draft, which could be a significant loss for his Wildcats.

Arizona continues to strengthen its program. If both had played, teammate Motiejas Krivas might have outshone Pete, but Krivas is set to return and is expected to become the best defensive center in college basketball next year. The team is even anticipating bringing in top 2027 prospect Caleb Holt and retaining Ivan Kharchenkov for another season.

Arizona will still be strong without Pete, yet his presence would have been a nice boost.

Winner: Milan Momsilovic and his prospects

Momsilovic shined as a high-volume shooter last season, knocking down 54.5 percent of his threes on 14.4 attempts per 100 possessions. I thought he was a potential early second-round pick, but he was always likely to earn more in college. So, his return is hardly a surprise.

Kentucky desperately wants to add Momsilovic after a rough offseason. Arizona could utilize him in place of Pete. Louisville is also eyeing him, hoping to lure him away from Mark Pope.

He’s projected to earn more than $6 million in college next year, which means he would have needed an early lottery pick to match that amount in the NBA. This NIL era is definitely advantageous for players like him.

Losers: NBA teams that aimed for these first-round picks.

These players could have secured first-round selections but opted to continue their college careers.

These athletes would have likely been early picks in the second round but opted out for another year in college.

College basketball is pushing back against the NBA. So, who comes out ahead? Ultimately, it’s the players who are capitalizing on their competitive edge in their prime.