U.S. Strategy in Post-Maduro Venezuela
After Nicolás Maduro was ousted, many believed that Washington would support Venezuela’s prominent opposition leader. However, the Trump administration chose to engage with Maduro’s long-time allies, suggesting a focus on ground stability rather than promoting democracy.
This pivot brought Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, into the spotlight while downplaying the role of opposition figure Maria Colina Machado, who claims widespread national and international support. Officials and analysts indicate this strategy aims to prevent a power vacuum during a delicate transition, despite creating complications for the U.S.’s ongoing backing of Venezuela’s democratic opposition.
Trump seems to think Rodríguez is now, perhaps, wary of challenging the U.S. He mentioned a phone call with her, saying she was willing to “do whatever it takes.” Yet, he also hinted at serious consequences if she doesn’t adhere to U.S. expectations, implying a more daunting future than Maduro’s.
Rodríguez was designated interim president following a Supreme Court ruling after Maduro’s ousting. The Venezuelan Constitution permits the vice president to assume interim leadership until new elections are arranged. While elections typically must occur within 30 days if a president is incapacitated, officials have described Maduro’s removal as temporary, thereby allowing Rodríguez to maintain her position until plans for a political transition unfold.
A recently classified CIA assessment explored who could best lead an interim government in Venezuela to stabilize the situation. This report, commissioned by policymakers and delivered to Trump, aims to provide a balanced analysis of potential scenarios following Maduro’s capture. However, it did not advocate for specific actions against Maduro.
Some officials believe Machado lacks the necessary support in Venezuela to take over effectively. Factors contributing to this include her absence from the country, despite her promise to return. The assessment concluded that Rodríguez is more suited to lead during this provisional phase, while Machado may struggle to gain backing from essential military or security entities.
Although Machado enjoys support from Western nations and democracy advocates, analysts maintain that it hasn’t translated into real influence on Venezuela’s military. Trump’s skepticism partly stems from his past frustrations when similar international backing didn’t yield a power shift.
According to geopolitical expert Pedro Garmendia, Machado has fundamental issues as she doesn’t command military support in Venezuela. On the other hand, Rodríguez is described as ideologically driven, which might pose challenges for the Trump administration in managing her long-term actions.
Trump has openly questioned Machado’s capability to lead a transition, citing her lack of support in Venezuela. It’s been reported that he felt frustrated by the prospect of Machado winning a Nobel Peace Prize, which he desired, even though the White House stated his decisions arose from strategic discussions.
Some officials, like Marco Rubio, emphasize that the decision to engage with Rodríguez is about mission objectives rather than personal bias. They argue that U.S. involvement must be viewed through the lens of distinct regional dynamics, unlike past conflicts in the Middle East.
The backdrop of past U.S. interventions in Latin America adds a layer of complexity. Analysts caution that installing an opposition leader right after a military operation could stir public suspicion and jeopardize a smooth transition. Eric O’Neill notes that selecting Machado for the presidency could lead to unrest, as the Venezuelan people prefer to elect their leaders themselves.
However, there are concerns that Rodríguez might not be well-received, lacking the broad appeal that historically underpinned governance in Venezuela. She is viewed as having legitimacy comparable to Maduro, but perhaps with even less popularity, mainly relying on elite negotiations rather than public support.
In the meantime, reports have emerged of armed groups patrolling the streets, and Venezuelan authorities have detained numerous journalists since Maduro’s arrest. Looking ahead, Garmendia warns of a volatile period on the horizon.
