Maritime intelligence experts indicate that a significant quantity of Venezuelan oil is being rapidly shipped to the U.S. following the arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro. Michel Wiese-Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst, noted that around “15 very large crude oil carriers,” amounting to 50 million barrels, are expected to be involved. The company Upwind has been monitoring oil tanker movements in the region for some time.
“The plan is to sell about 30 to 50 million barrels of oil almost overnight,” Wiese-Bockmann mentioned during a press briefing. He further explained that this volume equals the capacity of about 15 very large crude oil carriers.
The uptick in oil shipments comes shortly after President Donald Trump declared that Venezuela would send 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude oil, valued at roughly $2.8 billion at current prices, to the U.S. Trump articulated that the oil would be sold at market rates, with the proceeds intended “to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.”
Wiese-Bockmann pointed to data from Upwind, revealing that an environmental crisis might already be underway, with about 47 million barrels of crude oil and containers having been shipped out of Venezuela in December, according to a tracking partnership with Vortex. “They will be transported to the U.S. using storage ships,” he added, stating that American infrastructure is adequately prepared for the influx.
Given the evolving situation, there appears to be an increase in shipping activity related to Western operators, including reports of four Western-linked tankers making their way to Venezuela. This information follows a recent geopolitical shift where the U.S. military captured Maduro and brought him to New York on drug charges. Trump later mentioned that the U.S. would temporarily manage Caracas until a secure power transition could occur, hinting at a readiness to “launch a second, larger attack” if needed.
Despite the instability, reports suggest that more tankers are being chartered. Two ships reportedly reached Jose Terminal on January 5th and 6th, with two others departing for the U.S. on January 2nd and 6th.
Venezuela is known to possess more than 300 billion barrels of confirmed oil reserves, which is greater than that of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait combined. However, sanctions and isolation have significantly hampered production and exports. Following Trump’s directive, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is working to implement a plan to revive Venezuela’s oil industry as major U.S. energy companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, prepare for discussions at the White House.
Wiese-Bockmann observed that Maduro’s arrest has disrupted the clandestine oil trading routes that facilitated shipments to Asia. “Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, there has been a surge in ‘dark fleets,'” she noted, emphasizing how the alliance of Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and China has traded oil amongst themselves. She underscored that exports to Asia have struggled recently but have resumed rapidly to the U.S. since Maduro’s detention.
The situation is still evolving, and the White House has not provided a statement regarding these developments.
