The U.S. military apprehended Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, bringing him to New York to face charges related to drugs, narco-terrorism, and arms.
Just a few days prior, last month, President Donald Trump initiated a naval blockade against sanctioned oil tankers heading to Venezuela. This move is part of discussions with remnants of Maduro’s government about potentially allowing U.S. oil companies access. He stated, “Venezuela’s interim authorities will deliver between 30 million to 50 million barrels of high-quality sanctioned oil to the U.S. to be sold at market prices for the good of both American and Venezuelan citizens.”
Trump emphasized, “After years of negligence, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to reclaim American influence in the Western Hemisphere.”
The removal of Maduro and the U.S.’s heightened control over Venezuela’s oil production carry significant geopolitical consequences.
This action could reflect the struggle among U.S. adversaries, who, it seems, are hesitant to provide anything more than verbal support for each other. By reestablishing influence over Venezuelan energy and ousting a leftist leader, it appears the U.S. is attempting to undermine communist regimes in China and Cuba, while potentially threatening Russia’s financing of military operations in the medium to long term.
David DeTomasi, an international business professor at Queen’s University, remarked, “The U.S. actions in Caracas show a desire to assert its presence against Russian and Chinese moves in Latin America.” He noted that controlling Venezuela’s oil exports, historically directed to China and Russia, has been a key objective.
The Trump administration outlined its national security strategy, stating, “After years of neglect, the U.S. will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to safeguard our country and maintain access to vital regions within the Americas.”
Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, with estimates around 303 billion barrels as of 2024. However, despite this resource wealth, production has drastically declined due to nationalization efforts under former President Hugo Chávez and subsequent detrimental policies. The industry, quite needy for investment and expertise, has seen its output plummet from a high of 3.5 million barrels per day to about 1.1 million.
Since the 1970s, Venezuela’s share of global oil production has dwindled from 7% to 1%, yet their oil exports still hold value, particularly for nations at odds with the U.S., such as China and Cuba.
China
In response, China’s Foreign Ministry condemned U.S. actions in Venezuela, stating, “Such hegemonic measures are serious violations of international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty, and they endanger peace in Latin America and the Caribbean.”
China’s situation appears precarious, as they announced an upgraded “all-weather strategic partnership” with Venezuela in 2023, suggesting they would support the country’s struggle against overseas interference. The loss of such an ally could have severe implications for China, especially as they previously relied heavily on Venezuelan crude, which constituted about 4.5% of their maritime oil imports.
Recent reports indicate that while the imports were essential for maintaining their debt to Venezuela, which exceeds $10 billion, controlling the flow of this oil could significantly impact China’s energy strategy.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, an economist at the Heritage Foundation, pointed out that China has minimal oil resources and thus aims to secure as much oil as possible. “China’s not going to deploy troops to protect Venezuela, and neither will Russia,” she said, indicating that U.S. influence could curtail an important source of China’s geopolitical power.
As of 2024, China is responsible for the production of 92% of the world’s solar panels and 82% of wind turbines. If U.S. oil production increases with Venezuela’s resurgence, it could undermine China’s dominance in these sectors.
As for Venezuela’s stance, many of Maduro’s supporters remain influential, leaving unclear how the country will navigate its relationships moving forward. However, Andrés Martínez Fernández of the Heritage Foundation suggested that diminishing China’s role in the region would be a strategic win for the U.S. as anti-American alliances might falter when tested by American power.
Cuba
The impact of Maduro’s removal could echo through the Cuban regime, particularly as they have relied on Venezuelan oil. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel recently urged the international community to unite against what he termed a “terrorist” act of state by the U.S. against a legitimate government.
Cuba’s economy has been especially vulnerable, facing rolling blackouts and heavy reliance on Venezuelan oil. If this supply is ultimately cut off, the Cuban economy, already in recession, could face dire consequences.
Bart Hoffmann, a political scientist, highlighted that Venezuelan oil still constituted a significant portion of Cuba’s imports, confirming that any disruption would likely bring severe obstacles.
While speaking on the broader context, Martínez Fernández indicated that U.S. actions might ultimately limit threats not only in Venezuela but across the region. Weeks before Maduro’s arrest, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear that the U.S. aims to change the regime in Cuba as well. “Cuba is a disaster,” he remarked, touching upon the incompetence of its leadership.
Russia
Russia has also criticized U.S. actions, calling them destructive interference and urging Washington to rethink its position. Similar to China and Cuba, Russia has a strategic partnership with Maduro, but does not depend on Venezuelan oil in the same way.
The implications of Maduro’s ouster may resonate deeply in Russia, which leans on oil revenues to fund military operations. Economists warn that increased production in Venezuela could lower oil prices, affecting Russia’s economy, which draws about one-third of its federal revenue from oil and gas exports.
While the reaction from Moscow has been somewhat muted, analysts suggest this might be due to a desire to maintain a stable relationship with the U.S., especially in light of ongoing tensions in Ukraine.
Overall, the U.S. actions in Caracas could be a turning point, giving both Russia and China reasons to reconsider their strategies in Latin America, albeit cautiously.
