A significant question is arising amidst ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran: “If the Islamic Republic were to fall, who might take charge?” The answers, however, are quite murky. Regional experts and Iranian opposition representatives suggest that the future landscape may depend more on the circumstances surrounding the regime’s potential downfall than on ideology itself.
How the regime crumbles matters
Benam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasized that the process of collapse is just as vital as the collapse itself. “It’s not only that a regime can fall, but how it does. That’s crucial,” he remarked. Notably, Khamenei’s control over state matters remains questionable, especially considering his limited public appearances since the outbreak of conflict. He cautioned against Western nations backing superficial changes that merely switch one group of elites for another, alluding to models from Venezuela and Egypt where security forces retained influence under new rulers.
“In these scenarios, it often feels more like a game of musical chairs than genuine reform,” he noted, indicating that real change may elude the Iranian populace without a shift in power dynamics.
I think it’s crucial, Ben Taleblu pointed out, for Iranian activists to transform ongoing protests into a unified political force before authorities regain full control.
The role of security forces
Experts generally agree that the future of Iran hinges upon the stability and loyalty of the regime’s security apparatus. This encompasses the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militias, and the regular army. If significant segments of these forces were to defect or rebel, it could fundamentally alter the outcome, Ben Taleblu argued. He warned that without a major reduction in the regime’s repressive capabilities, the nation might end up with a regime change that superficially appears different, but retains the same foundations of power.
“That’s something we really worry about,” he stated. “If there’s just a reshuffling at the top, dissatisfaction among the public could escalate further.”
Could the military step in?
Some analysts recall moments from history, such as in Egypt, when the military intervened during turmoil. Benny Sabti from the Israel Institute for National Security Studies mentioned that while a military takeover isn’t off the table, it’s a complex and precarious possibility. He characterized the Revolutionary Guards as an ideological entity, distinct from the more conventional, state-oriented military, suggesting that disparate interests within the military might lead to conflicting dynamics.
Nevertheless, he highlighted how important it is for a leader to possess charisma in Iranian politics, noting that merely expressing discontent doesn’t automatically translate to leadership.
Political prisoners and emerging leaders
Experts remain skeptical about finding the next political figure through the ranks of imprisoned dissidents. Ben Taleblu pointed out that years of repression have stifled the cultivation of political leadership within Iran, suggesting that authentic leadership may need to emerge from outside. Sabti echoed this sentiment, stating that while released prisoners could participate in a new political framework, they likely won’t serve as dominant or inspirational figures.
Exiled opposition perspectives
The exiled opposition party led by Reza Pahlavi has recently gained traction amid the unrest, with calls for support from citizens in various cities. Those close to Pahlavi assert that he doesn’t intend to reinstate the monarchy but calls for a democratic Iran, with a future decided by the public. His approach is marketed as impartial and aimed at securing a free process for shaping the country’s leadership.
On the other hand, some argue that Pahlavi remains controversial, especially among those wary of monarchical influence. Critics note that while he garners attention internationally, the sentiments toward him domestically are quite polarized.
Organized opposition under Rajavi
The Mujahideen Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, also plays a significant role in the opposition landscape, claiming responsibility for organizing protests and supporting a transition away from the current regime. Rajavi insists that any change must be inherently Iranian and highlights the need for organized resistance to effectuate this change.
However, dissenters within the expert community question the level of support for this group, citing its historical context and previous actions that may alienate younger Iranians.
Future unclear
Experts agree that there’s no straightforward successor to the current regime, emphasizing the complexities surrounding Khamenei’s leadership and the security forces’ cohesion. Ben Taleblu noted that this situation resembles a lengthy process rather than an immediate transition, asserting that the goal is to foster conditions ripe for a genuine democratic change capable of reflecting the will of the Iranian people.
