Bitcoin Derivatives Market Shows Signs of Resetting
The Bitcoin derivatives market appears to be undergoing a reset after a speculative year in 2025. Binance’s open interest has dropped over 31% from its peak in October, with a waning selling pressure driven by futures trading often signaling significant cycle lows, according to CryptoQuant contributor Dirkforst.
In several posts on X, Dirkforst explained that the surge in leverage during 2025 was largely due to unprecedented activity on Binance, which resulted in futures trading volumes exceeding $25 trillion and pushed Bitcoin’s open interest to a record high of over $15 billion on October 6th.
“For context, during the previous bull cycle in November 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high, Binance’s open interest peaked at $5.7 billion,” Dirkforst noted. “So, open interest nearly tripled in 2025. Since then, it has decreased by more than 31%, settling around $10 billion.”
Dirkforst characterized the current market situation as an intensified deleveraging phase amid significant liquidation, indicating that open interest has fallen below the 180-day moving average. Analysts highlight that this condition tends to be more critical than the actual level of leverage.
“These deleveraging phases are essential as they help eliminate excess leverage built up in the market,” Dirkforst added. “Historically, they have marked significant lows, effectively resetting the market and providing a stronger foundation for a potential bullish recovery.”
The reasoning is relatively straightforward. Forced deleveraging can expose markets to cascading liquidations and reflexive selling. In this context, a low open interest environment may lessen the impact of spot futures positions compared to the crowded trading situations that often precede sharp downturns.
However, Dirkforst cautioned that a sign of deleveraging does not guarantee a solid bottom. “It might happen again, but we need to tread carefully,” he said, pointing out that if Bitcoin “keeps declining and enters a full-blown bear market,” open interest could tighten further, resulting in deeper deleveraging and an extended correction.
Declining Momentum Among Bitcoin Sellers
Alongside this reset in open interest, Dirkforst noted a significant drop in futures-driven selling pressure, assessed through net taker volume, which gauges control over the futures order book.
“Selling pressure on BTC from the futures market is diminishing rapidly,” he observed, explaining that after peaking at “-$489 million” for the monthly average, the figure now stands at “just -$51 million.” While sellers maintain slight control, this shift could be significant.
An important detail is that the indicator hasn’t reversed just yet, but it’s trending that way. “We’re not back in positive territory, but we’re getting closer,” Dirkforst remarked. “It’s encouraging to see traders altering their approach, especially considering how futures volume significantly influences price movements. Interestingly, BTC price changes have also stabilized since this reduction in selling pressure began.”
For the “bottom theory” to transition toward a more robust reversal signal, Dirkforst identified the crucial trigger. “If net taker volume turns positive again, that would clearly trigger a bullish reversal.”
As of now, BTC is trading at $95,131.
