Two surprising game predictions for the Divisional Round in the 2026 Playoffs

NFL Playoffs Update

We’ve made it to the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs! Exciting times! This weekend is arguably the highlight of the football season. Last week, well, it was rather disappointing. The Jaguars struggled to shield Josh “Hero Ball” Allen, while the Chargers faced persistent challenges due to their weak offensive line. But moving on to this week, I’m curious if the usual underdog narrative offers anything promising.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (-3)

The Patriots triumphed over the Chargers, who seemed to lack any offensive line, in the Wild Card round. Now they’ll confront a very formidable Texans defense. In fact, Houston’s defense was so strong in their game against the Steelers that it somewhat hampered their own offense. If Houston’s offense can maintain possession, it should create opportunities to pressure Drake Maye frequently. A solid defense can really change the game, and the Texans are on the rise at just the right moment.

Currently, Houston ranks second in DVOA for both passing and rushing. Meanwhile, the Patriots stand first in EPA allowed per pass play—an area where Maye thrives—and also lead in EPA per pass play. Maye has shown great skills, but he hasn’t yet faced a team like Houston, so I wonder if he can step up. Absolutely, he could prove me wrong, but many talented quarterbacks have struggled against this defense.

The Texans’ offensive performance raises some concerns. They were quite careless with turnovers in the previous game, including issues with QB and center exchanges. There’s definitely room for improvement as they head into a critical matchup for the franchise. Fortunately, their offensive line appears to be significantly better than that of the Chargers, which should help them advance the ball more effectively.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Denver Broncos

The Broncos hold the No. 1 seed and will play at home, yet they find themselves a notch behind the Bills, who just knocked out the formidable Jaguars in the Wild Card round. This fact might not weigh heavily on the Broncos, who will benefit from extra rest and the advantages of playing at altitude, but let’s not forget Josh Allen’s impact on the game.

Initially, I was leaning toward the Bills due to Allen’s exceptional talent. However, considering he isn’t at full strength, I’m starting to see the Broncos in a better light this weekend. They possess a true home-field advantage due to rest and elevation, in addition to having Sean Payton, who has a 4-0 record, including a Super Bowl victory after a bye.

In the end, Denver’s defense will need to contain Allen, who is not completely healthy. How serious his injuries are remains unclear. He took some hits in the game against the Jaguars, and his foot was bothering him before the match even started. This week might require him to manage several physical issues. He will likely play, but Denver’s defense is set to capitalize. They currently rank third in rush defense DVOA and eighth in pass defense DVOA, making it vital for them to stop James Cook while also keeping a watchful eye on Allen.