Let’s Play a Little Game

Consider this: two players, both noteworthy in their own right.

Player 1: 22 home runs, 73 RBIs.

Player 2: 19 home runs, 72 RBIs.

Now, it gets intriguing. And, yes, you can stop arguing about the importance of home runs or RBIs. I’ll circle back to that.

Player 1 recently signed a staggering $240 million contract, averaging $60 million annually—making him the highest-paid non-two-way player in MLB history.

Meanwhile, Player 2 isn’t quite as favored by the fans of his team.

If you’re wondering, Player 1 is Dodgers rookie Kyle Tucker, while Player 2 is Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe.

Tucker’s move to the Dodgers has sparked conversations—not just about their ability to land another top free agent, but more about how Tucker, despite being an exceptional player, yet not an MVP, is earning such a massive salary.

To give you a frame of reference, Tucker, with his fifth-place finish in the AL in 2023, is making $20 million more annually than Aaron Judge, a three-time MVP.

He also earns $9 million more than Juan Soto, who is a contender having won multiple MVPs.

And he makes, on average, about $35 million more than Bryce Harper, a two-time National League MVP.

Of course, contracts come into play at different times, across varying market environments. Neither Tucker nor Soto was seen as top-tier free agents last year, but this year’s options were somewhat limited.

In MLB, unlike in football, quarterback contracts don’t define future contracts for other quarterbacks. So the contracts can vary significantly.

The Dodgers didn’t have to push Tucker’s salary to $60 million just to top prior contracts, yet they and the Mets—who initially offered $220 million over four years—didn’t hesitate when it came to making the deal.

Clearly, there’s rationale behind this.

First off, it’s his age. Tucker turns 29 on Saturday, and teams tend to pay more for players who are either approaching their prime or have just entered it.

For instance, Aaron Judge signed his nine-year, $360 million contract before his age-31 season, while Soto landed a massive 15-year, $765 million deal before he turned 26.

Teams are inclined to invest in players hitting their prime years, showing more willingness with those about to peak, rather than those who might be past it.

And then there’s his Baseball Savant statistics—again, I apologize if I sound a bit nerdy here.

If you check out Tucker’s profile, you’ll notice impressive metrics, a lot to be proud of.

He’s within the 98th percentile for pursuit rate, 96th for walking rate, 93rd for expected weighted on-base percentage, 90th for RBIs, and 85th for strikeout rate.

These metrics are crucial for teams nowadays.

Tucker is excellent at controlling the strike zone, walks frequently, and doesn’t strike out often. These attributes are very much in demand in today’s baseball.

Now, looking at how Tucker stacks up against Judge and Soto on various metrics for 2025:

While Tucker ranks well in these areas, it’s evident he doesn’t match the level of Judge or Soto.

As we look to 2025, Tucker ranks 10th in positive graded runs over the last five years and has produced more wins than his replacement, yet he hasn’t had that standout season that would firmly place him among the top players in the league.

It’s worth noting that the Dodgers might be banking on securing a premium player now, especially considering future free agent markets might not yield the same caliber of hitters.

The next two classes have relatively weak lineups, with the upcoming winter’s being led by Jazz Chisholm Jr., Nico Hoerner, and potentially Dalton Varsho. The 2027 group features names like William Contreras, Freddie Freeman (who will be 38), and Jeremy Peña.

Except for Freeman, none of these players seem to represent the cornerstone for a franchise worth such significant investment.

When you pull all these aspects together, it’s reasonable to question, but the Dodgers clearly found justification in awarding Tucker more than Judge and Soto as they pursue a third consecutive championship.