President Donald Trump’s chances of overcoming a Supreme Court challenge related to his extensive tariff program appear to be steadily improving. This shift isn’t due to an official ruling from the court, but rather the absence of one, according to court officials.
The Supreme Court has yet again refrained from deciding on a prominent case that questions Trump’s emergency powers to enact tariffs, leaving investors and businesses uncertain after anticipating a timely decision, which has still not materialized.
This marks the second instance in less than a week where the court has delayed making a ruling. Observers speculate that the justices might be leaning towards a resolution that could ultimately benefit the administration.
Kelsey Christensen, a trade attorney, noted, “I think a prolonged wait for a tariff decision could be better news for the Trump administration compared to importers, though it doesn’t guarantee a favorable outcome.” She shared these insights with a financial news platform.
Christensen also mentioned that oral arguments took place a mere two months ago, indicating that progress is relatively swift by the court’s usual timeline.
“From November to January, the pace at which the court hears and decides major cases is quite fast,” she emphasized, adding that justices might be refining their majority opinion or considering differing views within their ranks.
Terrence Lau, who is the dean of Syracuse University Law School and has a background as a trade lawyer for Ford, conveyed to a news outlet that the justices might be deliberating the extent of their ruling against Trump.
He posited that the court might opt for a compromise solution where tariffs are invalidated but refunds on future collections are limited, relieving the Treasury from having to return previously collected tariffs.
“The longer these tariffs linger, the more impactful retroactive refunds will be for the U.S. Treasury,” Lau cautioned.
Meanwhile, market analysts are closely monitoring the situation.
Prediction market Calsi indicated that Trump’s chances in the tariff case increased to 34% on Friday, a rise from a low of 22% earlier in the week.
Polymarket registered a similar trend, with Trump’s odds climbing to 33% after dipping to nearly 21% just days prior.
The implications of this case are significant, involving billions in tariff revenue and the possibility of refunds.
Earlier rulings from lower courts determined that Trump overstepped his bounds by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to impose tariffs on specific countries.
Critics assert that this law doesn’t explicitly grant authority to impose tariffs and has never been employed in such a manner.
Trump consistently defends the legality of his measures and warns that removing the tariffs could severely harm the U.S. economy.
In a recent social media post, he expressed concerns about the chaotic ramifications of the Supreme Court potentially invalidating the tariffs, claiming it would be a “total mess” that the country could struggle to manage.
Officials from Trump’s administration suggest they are ready to maintain the tariffs even if the Supreme Court overturns the current administration’s decisions, indicating plans to reestablish them under alternative legal provisions.
The fallback strategies might include invoking Article 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the White House to introduce new or temporary tariffs using various legal frameworks, similar to other sections of the Trade Act.
The newspaper has reached out to the White House for further comment.
