Key Insights

• Recent data indicates that professional traders are willing to pay additional fees in order to safeguard against potential price drops in Bitcoin.

• While gold has reached new all-time highs, Bitcoin seems to be plateauing as investors lean towards more traditional safe-haven assets.

On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight increase of 1.5%, hovering around the $86,000 mark. This uptick comes as traders consider the looming risk of a U.S. federal government shutdown by Saturday. The week ahead is packed with significant events, including earnings releases from major tech companies and a monetary policy decision set for Wednesday by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Even as gold continues to reach record values, there’s a noticeable caution among Bitcoin traders. Indicators from the derivatives market reveal a lack of enthusiasm for bullish positions, with professionals anticipating a higher likelihood of downward price shifts.

The annualized BTC futures premium stood at 5% on Monday, barely adequate to offset the extended settlement times typical of these derivatives. Usually, this figure would exceed 10% if traders were optimistic, but it can even dip into negative territory during bearish trends. Overall, the market sentiment has leaned more towards neutral to bearish in the past couple of weeks.

Additionally, the BTC options delta skew hit 12% on Monday. This suggests that put options are commanding a premium, showcasing traders’ reluctance to endure potential losses. Under normal circumstances, this indicator varies between -6% and +6%. The last time such a high skew was observed was on December 1, 2025, when Bitcoin saw a rapid decrease from $91,500 to $83,900 within just a few hours.

Bitcoin Struggles While Gold Surges Amid US Concerns

At first glance, it seems odd to attribute Bitcoin’s downward trend solely to the ongoing fiscal disputes in the U.S., particularly since the S&P 500 rose by 0.6% on Monday. Meanwhile, gold’s price jumped to $5,100 for the first time, leading analysts to believe that “downgrade trading” may be on the rise. While the U.S. dollar has weakened against scarce assets—a recurring theme—the current situation reflects a broader sentiment of mistrust that isn’t directly benefiting Bitcoin just yet.

Investors have become warier after the New York Fed’s suggestion of a potential bailout for the Japanese yen, an unprecedented move since 1998. Other major fiat currencies have outperformed the U.S. dollar recently, which is driving up the cost of U.S. imports and escalating inflation concerns. Should the Fed intervene, it might be seen as a desperate attempt to stabilize the global market.

On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY) dropped below 97 for the first time in four months as investors sought refuge in competing fiat currencies.

Despite the five-year Treasury yield being at 3.8%, which exceeds yields in Europe and Japan, there’s still an expectation of rising inflation within the U.S. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the country might adopt a more flexible monetary policy, especially as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s term nears its end in April.

President Donald Trump has emphasized that his choice for Mr. Powell’s successor should prioritize reducing the federal funds rate. This could potentially provide the U.S. Treasury with more fiscal space by lowering interest expenses. Generally, a more expansive monetary policy is beneficial for stock markets but does not always encourage immediate investment in Bitcoin.

In related news, a substantial outflow of $1.7 billion from cryptocurrency fund holdings was reported—the largest since November 2025.

If earnings from major tech firms exceed expectations this week, investors might find even less motivation to diversify into alternative, scarce assets. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s journey back to the $93,000 level hinges on restoring confidence among professional traders, a process that could take longer than anticipated due to the current macroeconomic conditions and the corporate earnings season unfolding this week.