The Venezuelan regime under Nicolás Maduro has historically supported Cuba, America’s nearby communist counterpart. But with Maduro now incarcerated in New York, U.S. lawmakers and experts are shifting their focus to Mexico, which has quietly taken over Venezuela’s role as Cuba’s primary oil supplier.
As of January, Mexico provided about 13,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, making up roughly 44% of its oil imports. Some lawmakers warn that this support is barely keeping Cuba’s struggling economy afloat. As trade negotiations are anticipated to resume in July, Republican leaders are advocating for more pressure on Mexico to stop these oil exports.
Interestingly, the Trump administration is exploring the possibility of imposing a naval blockade on oil imports to Cuba. This would be a move to further extend efforts to cut off resources from Venezuela, where Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, is currently in charge. Such a blockade might exacerbate the economic issues in Cuba and could potentially lead to the downfall of the Castro/Díaz-Canel regime, a scenario many in the Cuban diaspora have long envisioned.
Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), the only Cuban-born member of Congress, remarked that even before Maduro’s downfall, the Cuban government was at one of its weakest points in 65 years.
While Trump tries to negotiate, Cuba’s leadership, notably Díaz-Canel, asserted that they would defend the country fiercely, stating they would protect it “down to the drop of blood.”
Gimenez criticized Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has links to the Socialist Party, claiming that Mexico’s actions are fueling Cuba’s oil dependency. He expressed concern that Mexico appears to be supporting Cuba rather than letting it decline further.
During upcoming trade discussions related to the USMCA, Gimenez mentioned the possibility of using that opportunity to push for an end to Mexico’s support for Cuba, especially given that Cuba is already facing significant hardships like rolling blackouts and medical shortages.
Analyst Andrés Martínez Fernández highlighted that the recent collaboration between Mexico and Cuba is alarming, suggesting that if Mexico continues to support Cuba amidst its healthcare issues, it could face serious backlash from the U.S. He underscored that U.S. tolerance for Mexico’s stance may soon run thin.
Trump has made it clear that he wants to cut off all oil and financial support to Cuba, declaring a “zero” policy aimed at preventing resources from reaching the island. The administration views Cuba’s ongoing situation as largely self-inflicted, especially after losing support from Maduro’s regime.
As trade talks are set for July, there is speculation that the U.S. may demand further concessions from Mexico regarding its ties to Cuba amidst the ongoing trade disputes. Current relations between the U.S. and Mexico are already complicated due to Trump’s contentious views on Sheinbaum’s refusal to address cartel issues.
Cuba, struggling historically after losing its support from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, now faces a crucial juncture. Many observers, particularly among the South Florida Cuban community, are hoping for significant change to the long-standing regime.
I think it’s likely that further developments will be necessary before there’s a notable shift in the Cuban government. The dynamics seem very fluid. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months.
