With Bitcoin’s value slipping below $75,000, a familiar question lingers among market watchers: how long will this bear market persist if the conditions don’t improve? Julio Moreno, who leads research at CryptoQuant, shared insights during the Milk Road Show on February 2nd, suggesting that many crucial indicators of demand and liquidity still reflect weakness. He believes the market bottom could take months to form, rather than just weeks.
Moreno’s main framework is CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index,” which evaluates 10 indicators related to on-chain valuation, liquidity, and market data, along with a technical trend input. The index, which ranges from zero to 100, currently sits at zero—indicative of a heavily bearish outlook. For over a month and a half, it’s fluctuated between 0 and 10, signaling significant weaknesses in the data and the market.
He recalled how the index made a sharp reversal in October, when a liquidation event flipped the market sentiment from bullish to bearish. Just previously, it had soared to 80, but quickly plummeted to the 20-30 range, which Moreno interpreted as a failed momentum shift, turning what could’ve been a late-cycle rally into just a brief surge.
Moreno emphasized the importance of timing in the current market. He bluntly stated that Bitcoin is “in a deep bear market,” and there’s no data to suggest a meaningful surge back to bullish territory. He also pointed out the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF, which went net short in the last quarter, likely pushing any recovery further out to early 2026. In January alone, ETFs sold over 10,000 Bitcoin, while the previous year saw them acquire 46,000 in the same timeframe. He remarked, “If the ETF is a net seller, it’s not going to support prices,” noting that a lasting recovery would probably hinge on stabilizing demand.
Another indicator, the Coinbase Premium—which measures the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges like Binance—has been negative since November, a sign of dwindling U.S. demand. Historically, bull markets are fueled by rising U.S. demand, but the ongoing discount indicates that bids from the U.S. haven’t recovered post-drawdown.
Moreno also discussed stablecoin liquidity as a potential advantage. He monitors changes in USDT market capitalization, a gauge of fresh investment into trading, and noted that growth has stalled since mid-October. Essentially, he tied stablecoin expansion to overall market liquidity, explaining that increased issuance typically happens on exchanges, providing “dry powder” for traders looking to invest in cryptocurrency.
Beyond ETFs and stablecoins, CryptoQuant’s long-term model for Bitcoin demand growth is lingering around zero year-over-year. Moreno indicated that sustained demand growth is crucial for bull markets; unfortunately, he observed that this growth has sharply slowed since October, highlighting why the downturn persists even while the market searches for stability.
He also mentioned that leverage positioning has declined. Using perpetual future funding rates to gauge interest in long positions, he noted that the one-year average trend is falling, suggesting less eagerness to invest long-term. The shift in short-term funding must be viewed differently depending on the overall market sentiment, whether it’s bullish or bearish.
Moreno remarked on the technical side as well, referencing Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which typically serves as a support level during bull markets and flips to resistance when the prices drop. Bitcoin fell below this average in early November and hasn’t managed to reclaim it, resembling patterns from early 2022. He described key levels of resistance, particularly for traders, as being around $89,000 to $79,000, with short-term targets of $70,000 and deeper support at $56,000.
He wrapped things up by emphasizing the psychological component of the market—not just the numbers. “First off, you need to accept that we are in a bear market. Plan accordingly,” he advised. While he mentioned that there could be some price increases ahead, he cautioned against confusing these spikes as the start of a bull market, and advised against trying to “catch the falling knife,” particularly after recent lows.
Looking ahead, Moreno speculated that the earliest realistic bottoming period could emerge in the third quarter of 2026, though this depends less on a swift rebound and more on whether demand, U.S. capital flows, and liquidity metrics stop their decline and begin to improve.
As of now, Bitcoin was trading at $75,041.
