Bitcoin’s Struggles Amid Economic Concerns

Key points:

• Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as weak U.S. employment data and worries about the AI industry led investors to steer clear of riskier assets.

• Options markets estimate there’s only a 6% chance Bitcoin will hit $90,000 by March.

On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below the $63,000 mark, reaching its lowest point since November 2024. Investors seem unsure about immediate positive momentum, especially after a 30% decline since the failed attempt to surpass $90,500 on January 28. This pessimistic sentiment is mostly driven by disappointing U.S. job market figures and rising apprehensions surrounding heavy investments in the artificial intelligence sector.

Regardless of whether the recent downturn is directly tied to broader economic shifts, options traders are pricing in a mere 6% probability of Bitcoin returning to $90,000 by March.

On the Deribit exchange, a call option to buy Bitcoin at $90,000 by March 27 traded for $522, reflecting a belief among investors that significant upside seems unlikely. Based on the Black-Scholes model, these options suggest a less than 6% chance for that price by the end of the month. Conversely, the right to sell Bitcoin for $50,000 (a put option) for the same day fetched a price of $1,380, indicating a 20% likelihood of a more drastic drop.

Risks from Quantum Computing and Liquidation Fears Intensify Sell-Off

Market players are pulling back on cryptocurrency investments due to emerging threats from quantum computing and worries about forced liquidations by companies having accumulated Bitcoin reserves through loans and equity. In mid-January, Christopher Wood, head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing risks of potential reverse engineering of private keys by quantum computers.

Strategy (MSTR US), a major publicly traded company with on-chain BTC holdings, saw its enterprise value shrink to $53.3 billion, while its cost basis remained at $54.2 billion. A similar situation has arisen for Japan’s Metaplanet (MPJPY US), which encountered a disparity between its acquisition price of $3.78 billion and a valuation of $2.95 billion. There are growing concerns that a prolonged bear market could compel these firms to sell off portions of their holdings to meet debt obligations.

External pressure likely adds to the increasing risk aversion, as even silver, the second-largest tradeable asset by market cap, experienced a 36% drop after reaching a peak of $121.70 on January 29.

Bitcoin’s 27% decline over the week mirrors losses experienced by billion-dollar companies such as Thomson Reuters (TRI), PayPal (PYPL), Robinhood (HOOD), and Aprovin (APP).

In January, U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs, an increase of 118% from the same month in 2025, marking the highest January layoffs since 2009 when the economy was nearing the end of a significant recession.

Related: The next phase of Bitcoin accumulation might hinge on the timing of credit stress, as indicated by recent data.

Market sentiment had already dulled after Google (GOOG US) reported that its 2026 capital spending could hit $180 billion, a substantial rise from $91.5 billion in 2025. Tech giant Qualcomm (QCOM US) saw its shares drop 8% following a less-than-promising growth outlook, partly due to redirection of supplier capacity towards high-bandwidth memory for data centers.

Traders seem to think it will take more time for investments in AI to yield returns, given heightened competition and production limitations, like energy constraints and a shortage of memory chips.

Bitcoin’s tumble to $62,300 signals growing uncertainty about economic growth and U.S. job market stability, making a short-term rebound to $90,000 increasingly improbable.