Imagine it’s September 1859. You’re working as a telegraph operator, relying on cutting-edge tech to communicate over vast distances. Suddenly, the night sky explodes with color from the tropics to the poles.
Then, all chaos breaks loose.
Sparks fly from your equipment, sending you tumbling, and igniting paper. It turns out some operators continued sending messages without batteries, unknowingly powered by enormous currents induced in the telegraph lines from one of the most potent magnetic storms ever recorded.
The storm stemmed from a massive solar flare observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington, resulting in a coronal mass ejection (CME) that interacted with Earth’s magnetic field. This type of event is now referred to as the Carrington phenomenon.
Fast forward to today; the technology has advanced significantly, but it’s much more sensitive to solar activity than back then.
The sun operates on an 11-year cycle, and this year marks its peak. Recently, on February 1, a massive sunspot dubbed AR4366 erupted, growing rapidly and unleashing the strongest X8-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.
In just 24 hours, that volatile region fired off 23 M-class and 4 X-class flares toward Earth. The intense radiation from the X8 flare disrupted shortwave radio communications across the South Pacific for several hours.
There is also the worry of a possible CME. The eruption emitted dense plasma that could head Earth’s way. If enough force reaches us, it can compress the Earth’s magnetosphere and create powerful geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Basically, the earth’s surface can become electrically charged. GICs can send current through high-voltage transmission lines, which is concerning.
Our modern society is now heavily reliant on electricity, far more than in the telegraph era. A Carrington-level event today wouldn’t just result in minor disruptions—it could destroy numerous high-voltage transformers, leading to widespread outages lasting months or even years. Supply chains would break down, water systems could fail, fuel pumps would stop, and communication lines would go dark. The economic fallout is estimated to be anywhere from $600 billion to $2.6 trillion in the U.S. alone, with lives potentially lost due to inadequate heating, medicine, and emergency services.
Despite these clear warnings, the power grid in America remains alarmingly vulnerable.
In a 2023 report, I outlined the existential threats posed to the power grid from both natural geomagnetic disturbances and man-made electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks.
A significant event could critically damage or destroy irreplaceable extra-high voltage (EHV) transformers, leading to prolonged blackouts far beyond state borders.
On a brighter note, proven, cost-effective hardware solutions are now available. A neutral point interrupter equipped with a capacitor can be installed at the grounded neutral point of high-voltage transformers to avert catastrophic damage. These devices thwart quasi-DC GICs caused by solar storms and EMP blasts while allowing normal AC power to flow freely. They shield against harmful ground currents, overheating, and other issues.
Additionally, these devices can also mitigate lower-level GICs, which currently reduce transformer lifespans and cost the industry billions due to reactive power losses.
As this technology has improved, costs have significantly decreased. A nationwide deployment to protect the 6,000 most at-risk transformers would need a one-time investment of around $4 billion—a fraction of the potential trillions at stake.
Yet, power companies are hesitant to even pass minor costs onto customers. Meanwhile, regulators are often bound by outdated standards that underestimate the risk.
Many vulnerability assessments are based on outdated European studies from over three decades ago when solar activity was unusually quiet. Those models didn’t consider our current interconnected high-voltage grid or the heightened activity of the sun we’re experiencing right now.
Another complicating factor is that most large power transformers are no longer manufactured in the U.S. These are primarily sourced from countries like China, South Korea, and Germany, with delivery times usually exceeding four years. If a severe solar storm destroys several or many transformers, it might take over a decade to replace them, which is untenable during prolonged power outages.
With sunspot AR4366 still active and more explosions expected in the coming days, it’s crucial for Congress and state legislatures to push for the installation of neutral isolation devices. Utilities must prioritize grid resilience over short-term financial concerns, and regulators need to update their standards to reflect actual risks rather than outdated assumptions.
The Carrington event was a shocking experience for telegraph operators. If we face a similar situation now, the effects on our civilization could echo those before the Industrial Revolution.
We have the technological means to prevent such a crisis. It’s time to take action.
