Is It a Good Time to Buy Rigetti Stock (RGTI)?

If you’re interested in quantum computing stocks, you’re likely familiar with companies that make quantum computing units (QCU), particularly Rigetti Computing(RGTI +18.26%). This quantum chip manufacturer has gained popularity, and its stock has surged over the past year. However, it’s worth noting that Rigetti’s stock is down over 60% from its peak in 2025, leaving room for a potential recovery in 2026.

So, is this a wise moment to invest in such a promising quantum computing stock?

Speed, Precision, and Scale

The quantum computing field is still quite new, but that hasn’t deterred companies from entering the market. Startups like Rigetti find themselves competing against tech giants like AlphabetGoogle and IBM, all developing technology that could become commercially viable.

Essentially, these companies are aiming to optimize quantum computers across three main metrics: speed, accuracy, and scale. Speed relates to how quickly a quantum system can manipulate particles through “quantum gates” in preparation for calculations.

Accuracy is gauged by “two-qubit gate fidelity,” which indicates the percentage of computations done without errors. Scale refers to the number of physical qubits present in a quantum system. The challenge in quantum computing, however, is that as speed and scale increase, accuracy tends to decrease.

Those companies that manage to balance speed, accuracy, and scale are likely to dominate the quantum computing landscape. But how does Rigetti stack up against its competitors?

How to Evaluate Rigetti

Rigetti’s system is known for its speed. The company claims its 108-qubit system (among the largest available) achieves gate speeds between 50 and 70 nanoseconds. That’s extremely fast.

But there’s a catch: the median accuracy for this 108-qubit system is only 99%, based on two-qubit gate fidelity. Though that sounds high, in the quantum realm, even a discrepancy of 0.01% is significant.

Interestingly, the company’s smaller system performs better on accuracy. A 36-qubit system achieves a fidelity of 99.6%, and a 9-qubit system reaches 99.7%. However, there’s competition; IonQ(IONQ +15.18%) has reported achieving 99.99% fidelity in a 100-qubit system. While IonQ’s approach is more accurate, it’s also slower.

Rigetti’s CEO, Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, mentioned last month that the company “clearly understands what it needs to achieve a median gate fidelity of 99.5% for two qubits” in their upcoming Cepheus-1-108Q system, which should launch this quarter. Yet, even reaching that target, there’s still a considerable distance to cover.

Image source: Getty Images.

Projected Path for Rigetti

Experts suggest that for a quantum computer to be commercially viable, it needs at least one million physical qubits and a two-qubit gate fidelity of around 99.99% (possibly even closer to 99.99999%). It seems there’s still a considerable road ahead before quantum computing becomes more common.

Rigetti is optimistic about its plans to develop a 1,000-qubit system with a 99.7% two-qubit gate fidelity by 2027, but long-term projections remain fuzzy. In contrast, IonQ intends to create 10,000-qubit systems by 2027 and reach 2 million qubits by 2030. If Rigetti could scale up similarly, it might hit a 200,000-qubit system by 2030 and surpass the million-qubit milestone by 2031.

However, it’s uncertain how accurate those larger systems will be and whether Rigetti can effectively compete against deep-pocketed rivals like IonQ, Google, and IBM.

Final Thoughts for Investors

So, should you invest in Rigetti at this time? The answer isn’t straightforward. Unless you’re a risk-tolerant investor, it might be wise to wait. The company is speculative, and there’s a lot that could change from now until 2030.

Image source: Getty Images.

On a positive note, the quantum computing market could potentially reach $72 billion by 2030, according to McKinsey & Company. If Rigetti secures a significant share of that market, it could find itself in a strong position. Nevertheless, numerous factors need to align for that to happen, and predicting how this rapidly evolving sector will unfold is tricky at best.

For those eager to tap into the quantum computing trend early on, Rigetti might be worth considering. Still, it’s probably wise not to place all your investments in one (quantum) venture. Personally, I would prefer a modest investment in Rigetti while diversifying with other quantum computing firms or perhaps a quantum computing ETF to spread the risk. And, of course, it’s essential to never invest more than you can afford to lose.