According to Scotiabank, ongoing purchases by central banks, increased geopolitical tensions, and more investor interest in exchange-traded funds could lead to rising gold prices in the upcoming months.
“Even with the recent market fluctuations, we think this bullish trend is still in play,” noted Tanya Jaksconek, leading the Scotiabank mining analysts, in a strategy report issued on Tuesday. “Factors from history, like high trade uncertainties and geopolitical issues, are very much present and unlikely to lessen anytime soon.”
The price of spot gold dropped about 2.7% to $4,855.92 per ounce. This decrease came after economic and trade data were made public on Tuesday afternoon. Following a remarkable 60% increase last year, the year-to-date gain has now slipped to roughly 13%. Since Friday, the value had fallen by about 3.5%.
Financial Situation
Jefferies analysts highlighted in a report last month that two primary macro trends are influencing global demand for metals like gold: inflation and what they refer to as a “weak dollar.” Concerns about the growing U.S. federal debt have raised alarms among institutional investors and central banks globally.
This concern has, in turn, spurred a process of de-dollarization or at least a shift in global preferences for foreign exchange reserves.
The surge in gold prices can be traced back to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led governments worldwide to implement enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.
“Even five years later, governments are still running significant deficits, and it seems there is little chance of fiscal prudence. The upward trajectory of global government debt does not appear to be slowing down,” Jaksconek and her team stated.
Amid the Trump administration’s aggressive policies, including the action against Russian assets post the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, alongside rising resource nationalism and the introduction of tariffs on imports, “investors are gravitating towards hard assets like gold,” they added.
Central banks, especially from emerging markets, are reportedly heavy net purchasers of gold, viewing it as a crucial asset for diversification. According to Scotiabank data, these banks hold less than 30% of the physical metal. In December 2025, banks acquired 328 tonnes of gold through the IMF and other public sources, down from 345 tonnes during the same time the previous year, based on World Gold Council data.
Investment Demand
In January, physical gold ETFs registered $19 billion in deposits, marking the highest monthly total on record, according to the World Gold Council. Coupled with a 14% monthly price increase, this led to a 20% rise in global gold ETF assets, reaching a new peak of $669 billion. Global holdings rose by 120 tonnes to 4,145 tonnes, also a record high.
Gold demand is being further bolstered by acquisitions from stablecoin issuers like Tether.
Tether, recognized as the largest non-government holder of physical gold, ranks among the 30 largest gold holders globally, according to Jefferies analysts led by Fahad Tariq in a February 8 note. Jefferies estimates that as of January 31, Tether possessed 148 tonnes of physical gold, valued at about $23 billion, having purchased 26 tonnes in the last quarter of the previous year and another six tonnes in January.
Jefferies analysts noted that while central bank and investment demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and de-dollarization have all contributed to gold’s remarkable 49% increase from July through January’s end, “we still believe that Tether’s purchases played a significant role, too.”
