Germany’s Ifo Institute Reports Improved Business Conditions
The Business Conditions Index from Germany’s Ifo Institute saw a slight increase to 88.6 in February, surpassing January’s predictions of 88.4 and the previous value of 87.6.
Meanwhile, the IFO Current Rating Index registered at 86.7, which is above expectations of 86.1 and an increase from January’s reading of 85.7.
As anticipated, the IFO Expectations Index stood at 90.5, up from January’s 89.6 and revised from an earlier 89.5.
Market Response
The release of the German IFO data didn’t seem to affect the euro (EUR) immediately. At the time this was noted, EUR/USD was trading 0.25% higher at approximately 1.1810, even though it had lost some of its initial gains.
Today’s Euro Price
The following table illustrates the percentage change of the euro (EUR) compared to major currencies today, with the euro showing the strongest performance against the US dollar:
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.25% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -0.21% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | 0.01% | -0.05% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.22% | 0.13% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.11% | 0.11% | 0.01% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | -0.17% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.09% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.21% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.09% |
The heat map depicts percentage changes across major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting EUR against USD shows the percentage change reflecting the conversion rate.
Overview of the IFO Survey
On Monday at 9 a.m. Japan time, Germany’s Ifo Institute is set to publish its February economic survey.
The main IFO – Business Climate Index is predicted to rise slightly to 88.4 in February compared to 87.6 in January.
The IFO Current Rating Index is expected to increase to 86.1 from its previous value of 85.7.
Furthermore, the IFO – Expectations Index is anticipated to rise to 90.5, up from 89.5.
Potential Impact of the IFO Study on EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair may find support following the IFO survey release, as the euro strengthens against the US dollar after a recent ruling against President Trump’s tariffs without Congressional approval.
Nonetheless, there’s still some uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, especially with reports suggesting the president is considering a new global tariff. Meanwhile, a European Parliament trade chief noted that the European Union might pause ratification of trade agreements with the United States until clearer guidelines are available.
Technically speaking, the EUR/USD pair has been on the rise for the second consecutive session, currently trading around 1.1820. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is back at 51, right above the midline, suggesting a stable momentum. The pair is also testing a barrier at the 9-day EMA around 1.1825. If it manages to close above this mark, it might be set for its highest point since June 2021 at 1.2082. However, any fall below the 9-day EMA will shift focus to the 50-day EMA support level at 1.1776.
Economic Indicators
The IFO – Business Environment index serves as an early gauge of Germany’s economic state and business outlook, based on surveys from over 7,000 companies regarding their current conditions and short-term expectations. A strong economic outlook generally signals bullish activity for the euro, while lower figures can be viewed as negative.
