The race to the moon is heating up once again. However, the stakes now are much higher than during the 1969 competition with the Soviet Union. If China were to reach the moon first and set up a permanent human presence, it wouldn’t be just for scientific purposes; it would likely aim to extend its influence, intimidate the U.S. and its allies, and challenge the security measures protecting American interests. This isn’t merely a plot from a science fiction story—it’s a significant concern.
President Trump recognized the potential threat and took action by signing an Executive Order aimed at securing U.S. dominance in space. This order emphasized the need for the U.S. to lead in this new space race, with ambitions to return Americans to the moon and establish a lasting human presence there by 2028.
It’s important to note that the fear around China “claiming” the moon misunderstands both the geographical context and international law. Two key settlement sites include Shackleton Crater and Aitken Basin, both of which are not far by Earth standards.
For Congress, the real issue isn’t who arrives “next,” but rather who can establish a sustainable and defensible presence on the moon. China seems to grasp this challenge well and is currently working on a reusable launch system that could allow them to dominate this terrain and its invaluable resources in the next ten years. The U.S. needs to take this potential threat seriously and react swiftly.
The Space Launch System (SLS), initiated during the Obama-Biden era for the Artemis mission, is based on designs from the 1980s. A former NASA inspector general has criticized it, pointing out its exorbitant costs—estimated at about $4.2 billion per launch, with nearly $64 billion spent already, despite just one operational flight post-2022. That’s quite a hefty amount for a limited capacity and a slow launch schedule.
In light of NASA’s hurdles with the SLS, a Chinese state-backed company has begun to adopt a similar design that supports a fully reusable rocket, drawing inspiration from SpaceX’s Starship. Notably, China’s Long March 10 booster achieved a powered vertical ocean landing in just eight years. This clearly shows that China is quickly closing the gap and that nations able to launch more frequently will have an edge.
A big question for national security arises if, after the Artemis III mission, the U.S. fails to capitalize promptly on cost and capacity improvements.
If China establishes a permanent presence on the moon, it would bolster its intelligence capabilities, enabling monitoring of U.S. activities as well as those of its allies. China has made significant investments in methods to weaken U.S. satellite systems, threats that could directly impact American homeland security.
Trump’s advocacy for a robust multi-layered space defense, dubbed the “Golden Dome,” is well-founded—yet if China controls the high ground, it could set up a moon-based counterattack command to disrupt U.S. defense measures. Effectively, without air dominance, U.S. homeland defense would be severely compromised. So, establishing a capability—perhaps even a “Donald J. Trump Moon Base”—is crucial to ensuring operational superiority ahead of China.
Moreover, if China is left unchallenged on the moon, it certainly raises the specter of espionage and sabotage—not to mention potential interference with future U.S. lunar projects.
Lastly, it’s clear that China is intent on controlling moon resources. For the U.S., staying ahead in the mining race for critical minerals—many of which China currently dominates—is vital for national security, economic stability, and overall sovereignty.
The moon represents the ultimate high ground. Even if we’re leading on Earth, we simply cannot fall behind in space. If China starts returning to the moon regularly, it could maintain control over its presence there, affecting the Golden Dome and essential infrastructures, leaving the U.S. vulnerable to its primary adversary.
To outpace China, Congress should hold accountable those responsible for delays and budget issues, cease support for outdated systems, and focus on reusability. Our security depends on it, so prioritizing cost, capacity, and operational rhythm is critical.
