It’s been four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, and the situation in Ukraine has devolved into a harsh conflict with significant casualties and gradual changes in territory. As of now, Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine, but Kiev has recently managed to reclaim some ground in counterattacks. Casualty estimates indicate that Russia has lost approximately 1.2 million personnel, while Ukraine’s losses range between 500,000 and 600,000 since 2022, reflecting the heavy toll on both sides.
While the fighting continued, diplomacy also ramped up. President Donald Trump had a high-stakes meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last August, aiming to advance negotiations. Since Trump returned to office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has made several trips to Washington, including a contentious Oval Office meeting in February 2025 followed by another visit later that year.
The latest U.S. involvement came during negotiations in Abu Dhabi earlier this year, with further dialogue occurring in Geneva on February 17-18, where Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with both Russian and Ukrainian delegations to pursue a potential resolution.
As the conflict approaches its fifth year, former officials and analysts project that three scenarios might unfold: an ongoing stalemate, a shift in momentum favoring Ukraine, or a troubling decline in Western resolve.
Scenario 1: Prolonged Stalemate
The situation could continue as a war of attrition, with neither side making decisive progress and negotiations stalling. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove remarked that, despite holding territory, Russia hasn’t effectively won: “There are no winners at this point.” He notes that, even with its military capabilities, Russia has expended a staggering number of lives without achieving victory. This conflict is proving challenging for both sides.
Scenario 2: Ukraine Momentum Reshapes Diplomacy
Recent battlefield changes hint at another possible outcome. Breedlove noted that Ukraine is capitalizing on disruptions in Russia’s command structure. Following the loss of their command and control system, Ukraine has recently launched offensives, recovering significant territory in just a few days. Such advances may alter the dynamics at the negotiating table.
Carrie Filippetti from the Vandenberg Coalition explained that these gains could shift leverage in negotiations. She emphasized that momentum is crucial for achieving a fair peace agreement. With a recent significant battlefield advancement, Ukraine is in a better position to negotiate.
Breedlove added that continued strong U.S. support for Ukraine could prompt Russia to rethink its strategy, which could, in turn, bolster Ukraine’s negotiating position.
Scenario 3: Escalation or Western Fatigue
The third potential path, one that worries some Western strategists, involves inconsistent support that could prolong the conflict or shift the balance in Russia’s favor. Heather Nauert, a former press secretary for the U.S. State Department, remarked that the conflict is about more than just territory; it touches on identity and the future of a free nation.
Lt. Gen. Richard Newton stressed that peace can only be achieved when force shapes the conditions of that peace. He indicated that President Putin will likely continue to test the resolve of the West until the costs of aggression outweigh the potential benefits.
Ultimately, what Ukraine needs is steadfast and unwavering support from the U.S. and Europe to deter further aggression from Russia. Breedlove warned that merely negotiating won’t change the balance; failing to take necessary actions could allow Russia to complete its takeover.
As the war progresses, it’s important for the international community to recognize the implications of their support—or lack thereof—and to ensure that Ukraine is not left to navigate this conflict alone.
