Four Years of Conflict: Ukraine and Russia’s Ongoing War

It’s been four years since Russia initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and here we are, heading into the fifth year. Despite various diplomatic efforts and pushes for negotiation, the end of this conflict seems as distant as ever.

Since Donald Trump came back into power, there has been an uptick in peace talks, and channels—both direct and indirect—between Moscow and Kyiv have reopened. Recently, Ukrainian President Volodyr Zelenskiy mentioned that the U.S. is aiming for a peace agreement by June. This push from the Trump administration will likely put pressure on both sides, especially following a recent strike on energy infrastructure and a halt in prisoner exchanges.

Still, the fighting persists unabated.

On the ground, Russian troops are continuing to make slow but costly gains in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region, which is still a point of contention. The pace of these advances is a stark contrast to the rapid gains witnessed in the early days of the invasion. Progress is now measured in small increments, as noted by the Institute for the Study of War, which monitors the conflict’s developments.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched counteroffensives in the northeastern area of Kupyansk, managing to reclaim some territory even as Russian forces maintain their incremental advances.

Interestingly, NATO’s chief pointed out that Russia is reportedly losing around 25,000 troops each month as the war escalates.

In an interview, Christina Harward, deputy leader of ISW’s Russia team, observed that the Kremlin seems to have little interest in compromising, sticking to the same core demands from before the war started. “They keep stalling and placing blame elsewhere. It’s as if they’re trying to manipulate the situation to influence Trump and his administration into meeting their demands,” she remarked.

Harward highlighted that Russia continues to insist on control over the remaining Ukrainian-held regions of Donetsk. The Kremlin’s preparations for a possible spring offensive hint that they are more inclined toward a prolonged conflict rather than seeking peace anytime soon.

Negotiations are also tangled in wider security concerns. Russia has dismissed the idea of Western security guarantees for a post-war Ukraine, claiming foreign forces could be seen as legitimate targets if they stepped in. Conversely, Kyiv, along with its European allies, argues that without tangible security assurances, a ceasefire would simply give Russia the chance to regroup and rearm.

Maj. Gen. Matt Smith shared his thoughts with Fox News Digital, stating that, unfortunately, the recent diplomatic efforts haven’t brought Ukraine and Russia closer to an agreement. He noted that Putin faces considerable internal pressures that may restrict his ability to make concessions.

“The stakes for him are incredibly high, not just in terms of potential loss but also regarding his political standing within Russia,” Smith explained. “If he were to make any sort of compromise, the costs in terms of life and resources would be significant. He has already paid dearly for this conflict.”

Since the onset of the war in February 2022, Russian military losses have approached an estimated 1.2 million casualties, with a substantial portion being fatalities. A recent analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that if current trends continue, total casualties could approach 2 million by spring 2026.

CSIS research indicates that Russian forces have advanced only a fraction of a mile daily in their more notable assaults, which is considerably slower than most significant military operations over the past century.

Gen. Smith made a poignant comparison to the conclusion of the Vietnam War, suggesting that the military outcomes may already be clearer than the intricate political dynamics at play. “The war, in many ways, is effectively over,” he noted. “Yet, tragically, the loss of life continues. Putin has already lost; the challenge now is how to get him to recognize that.”