Michael Saylor’s Perspective on Bitcoin and Apple’s Journey
Michael Saylor is encouraging Bitcoin holders to reflect on a comparison with Apple—not the Apple of today, but the Apple back in 2013. At that time, Apple’s stock had plummeted 45% from its peak, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of under 10x, and it appeared to be just a tired cash cow with no bright future ahead. Despite the fact that the iPhone was an essential device for over a billion users, market skepticism lingered. It took Apple a solid seven years, aided by notable investors like Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett, to regain its prior valuation.
This analogy resonates with Saylor, who is at the helm of Strategy, Inc., which is the largest public holder of Bitcoin. He pointed out, “There’s really no technology investment success story that has avoided a significant drawdown and didn’t face a ‘valley of despair’,” as he discussed on Nathalie Brunel’s Coin Story Podcast.
“So far, ours has been ongoing for about 137 days. But it could take two years or even three. If it ends up being like Apple and takes seven years, then that’s just how it goes,” he remarked.
Bitcoin is currently down approximately 45% from its all-time high of around $125,000, mirroring Apple’s decline from 2012 to 2013. The economic landscape is already showing its impact. Data from Glassnode revealed that on February 5, Bitcoin experienced a shocking drop from $70,000 to $60,000 in one day, recording $3.2 billion in entity-adjusted realized losses—surpassing the collapse of Terra Luna and marking the largest single-day loss in Bitcoin’s history.
Saylor noted that part of the current cycle’s less extreme nature is attributed to structural shifts. He explained that the migration of derivatives trading from offshore exchanges to regulated U.S. markets has helped stabilize volatility, compressing significant drawdowns that once could have been around 80% down to 40% or 50% declines.
However, traditional banks are still hesitant to offer substantial credit against Bitcoin holdings. This reluctance might push some investors toward alternative banking options, which could lead to artificial selling pressure during tumultuous times.
Addressing Quantum Computing and Other Concerns
Saylor was also skeptical when asked about the potential risks posed by quantum computing. He sees it as the latest in a long line of existential concerns that seem alarming but don’t ultimately disrupt the networks—from debates over block sizes to energy use to China’s mining influence.
He suggested that quantum computing isn’t an imminent threat; it likely won’t pose a significant risk for at least another decade. By the time it becomes relevant, Saylor anticipates that systems across various sectors will have moved to post-quantum cryptography. Moreover, Bitcoin’s software will adapt and evolve in tandem with these changes, based on widespread global consensus among nodes, exchanges, and hardware providers.
According to him, a significant quantum leap would necessitate synchronized upgrades across all digital systems globally, not just Bitcoin. In this context, he referred to both the narrative surrounding quantum computing and the rising scrutiny linked to events involving figures like Jeffrey Epstein, who have drawn criticism towards certain Bitcoin Core developers, reflecting fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).
“That’s really not the concern,” Saylor commented. “It seems like they got bored of quantum FUD and decided to switch to Epstein FUD instead.”
