XRP Price Trends and Insights
XRP has faced ongoing pressure since early 2026, continuing its downward trajectory that kicked off in January. Numerous altcoins have struggled to reclaim critical resistance levels.
The overall market sentiment, influenced by weak macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical issues, has stifled any upward movement. Still, some historical and on-chain indicators hint that XRP might be nearing a turning point.
Losses for XRP Holders Approaching Conclusion
The net unrealized profit and loss (P&L) indicator suggests that XRP is still in a phase of surrender, indicating that most holders are experiencing unrealized losses. This capitulation often signals the later stages of a downtrend, rather than the onset.
In the past, XRP’s surrender phase lasted nearly a month before reversing. Since the current situation started in early February, if history repeats, we might see a change in the first week of March. A decline in panic selling could stabilize the prices and pave the way for a potential recovery.
The Spent Production Return (SOPR) indicates that many XRP holders are still selling at a loss. Although it briefly surpassed 1 in mid-February, signaling temporary profitability, it quickly dropped below, reflecting renewed selling pressure.
Notably, SOPR is nearing the 1 level again. Consistent movement above this point generally signifies that coins are being sold profitably. Historically, such a shift often aligns with the beginning of a recovery phase. If the current sell-off loses steam, XRP could have room for a rebound.
What Does XRP’s Historical Performance Indicate?
Data over the past twelve years shows March typically delivers an average return of 18% for XRP, making it the strongest month in the first quarter. While previous results don’t guarantee future outcomes, they certainly provide insight. External risks remain, however—escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Israel could affect risk appetite, and general financial uncertainty might stall the usual bullish trend.
XRP Price Levels to Monitor
As of now, XRP is trading at $1.29, sitting just above the significant support level of $1.27, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, often seen as a bear market support floor. Holding this level is crucial to avoid deeper declines.
If the capitulation phase comes to an end and market conditions stabilize, XRP could rebound from $1.27 and challenge the downtrend line established since January. A move above $1.51 would signify a structural change, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a vital recovery marker.
On-chain statistics suggest little resistance in the $1.76 to $1.80 range, where about 1.85 billion XRP has been accumulated, valued at roughly $2.83 billion. It’s likely that holders in this range may sell until they reach their break-even point, creating a temporary resistance.
However, the upbeat perspective could be jeopardized if XRP fails to maintain the $1.27 support. A fall below this level might push it down toward $1.11. Should global uncertainties linger, there’s a chance the market could continue moving sideways. All in all, March carries both risks and opportunities for XRP’s recovery.
