A recent national poll in Brazil reveals that conservative candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, Rio de Janeiro) has seen his lead over socialist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shrink to within the margin of error.
The upcoming participation of the country in the 2026 election will hinge on a decision from the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in December. In related news, Flavio’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to 27 years in prison for actions deemed harmful to democracy. Following his narrow loss to Lula in the last presidential race, Jair is prohibited from holding any public office until he turns 105 in 2060. It’s worth noting that he’s currently suffering from serious health issues, including a cancer diagnosis, stemming from a 2018 assassination attempt where he was stabbed by a political opponent.
This recent poll was conducted by Datafolha and featured in left-leaning publications like Folha de Sao Paulo. The findings suggest that the landscape of the presidential election has shifted significantly since December. Flavio Bolsonaro seems to have gained momentum, appealing to voters who were initially hesitant about him as his father’s successor, particularly through his alliance with Sao Paulo’s governor, Tarcisio de Freitas. Both insist they’re not rivals, with de Freitas supporting Bolsonaro to maintain unity on the right.
Brazil’s presidential elections take place in one or two rounds. Typically, candidates appear on the ballot in the first round, and if no one secures over 50% support, a second round is held between the top two candidates. Datafolha forecasts Lula will achieve 38% support in the first round, while Bolsonaro is projected at 32%. This marks a notable rise for the latter, who previously trailed Lula by 15 points in another poll. Interestingly, the poll showed about 11% of respondents would prefer not to vote for any candidate, with an additional 3% undecided.
Moreover, in the second-round projections, Datafolha indicates that Lula would still pull ahead, but only by a narrow margin—46% to Bolsonaro’s 43%. This is a significant change from December, when Lula had led by a 51% to 36% margin.
Some media outlets, like Gazeta do Povo, suggest that while Lula might be ahead, his party has reasons to be concerned. Without Lula in the race, Bolsonaro might outperform his leftist counterpart, potentially Fernando Haddad, who previously lost to Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. Lula’s widespread recognition could also be problematic; only 1% of Brazilians are unfamiliar with him, compared to 7% for Flavio Bolsonaro. Polls suggest that if Bolsonaro could win over just half of Lula’s undecided followers, he’d significantly close the gap entering the runoff.
On another note, Datafolha’s results may not fully encapsulate conservative support for Bolsonaro. A recent real-time poll in São Paulo found him leading by four points—highlighting the potential for conservative candidates to boost turnout in cities leaning right, as opposed to Lula’s strong northeastern base.
A January survey by Futura/Apex also reflected a favorable picture for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, showing him with 48% to Lula’s 42%. Notably, the same poll indicated that Lula would likely win in the first round if de Freitas joined the race. Projections suggest de Freitas could also beat Lula in a runoff scenario.
Flavio Bolsonaro, who declared his candidacy in December with his father’s encouragement, aims to champion conservative values in Brazil. He has hinted he would step back if the government decides to release his father and allow him to run.
In his statement, he expressed concern about the country’s trajectory, stating, “I cannot and will not give up and watch our country move through a period of instability, anxiety, and discouragement.”
Brazil will hold its first round of voting for the presidential election on October 4th.
