Here are some interesting facts about March Madness that you might not know. Since 2012, aside from one year, all but one Final Four has featured at least one team seeded No. 5 or lower. In most cases, at least two teams have been seeded seventh or lower.
The major exception was last year, when all four No. 1 seeds made it to San Antonio.
Since 2011, though, 13 teams seeded seventh or lower have been knocked out in the final weekend. That’s pretty striking.
This year, a return to “normal” for the tournament might not mean a heated Final Four. Instead, we could see two or three top seeds and one or two other teams that haven’t exactly racked up wins.
With that in mind, let’s explore five “dark horse” teams that might surprise everyone and advance further than expected.
wisconsin (5th seed, West region)
If you asked me which region outside of the top four seeds might win the tournament, I would lean towards Wisconsin without hesitation.
The Badgers have shown they can hold their own against top-tier teams. They handed Michigan their first defeat of the season in Ann Arbor, took down Illinois and Purdue on their home turf, and easily beat Michigan State by 21 points.
Wisconsin’s offense can compete at the highest level, and when they allow few points—as in the prior wins—it’s clear they belong among the top teams. Plus, star guard Nick Boyd knows what it takes to reach the Final Four, having done so with Florida Atlantic last season.
The upcoming second- and third-round matches against Arkansas and Arizona are tough, but if they can get past them (or if another team does the heavy lifting), the West might see an upset on the horizon.
UCLA (7th seed, East)
A couple of months back, the Bruins were 12-6 and looked unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, they’ve won six of their last eight games, including three against top-10 teams like Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State.
The key? Point guard Donovan Dent has really stepped up, becoming the kind of player everyone was talking about during the transfer portal season last spring.
Dent did leave the game early with a calf strain in UCLA’s 73-66 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, but he’s been held out just to be safe—and he should be ready for the tournament.
Tyler Bilodeau, the top scorer, missed the game against Purdue due to a knee injury from the day before, but he’s also on the mend. Coach Mick Cronin mentioned that they prioritized resting their players for the upcoming games.
“Next week is more important,” Cronin noted, emphasizing that even though both could have played through injuries, preserving them for what’s next is crucial.
With both Dent and Bilodeau back, UCLA could really make a splash in the East. They’re a stronger contender than UCF in the first round and might be facing a second-seeded UConn team that looks more vulnerable than before.
Watch out for the Bruins—if they get hot, it could change everything.
St. John’s (5th seed, East)
This team doesn’t require a lot of explanation. It’s March, and with Rick Pitino at the helm, they’re on a roll, losing only once since January 3rd and recently making it to the Big East tournament final.
It’s reasonable to question whether St. John’s turnaround is due to Pitino’s coaching or just a less competitive Big East. But, be cautious if you lean towards the latter.
Georgia (8th seed, Midwest Region)
An 8 seed beating a 1 in the second round creates chaos in most brackets. If you’re feeling bold, Georgia is worth keeping an eye on.
Even if you’re hesitant about that, the Dawgs seem likely to win against the more prominent St. Louis squad in the first round.
Under Mike White, they’ve been playing some of the best basketball recently, winning five out of their last six games, including victories over Alabama, Kentucky, and Texas, finishing the regular season only narrowly losing to Vanderbilt.
As Thursday approaches, keep an eye on Jeremiah Wilkinson; he’s got the potential to shine on opening day.
Louisville (6th seed, East)
The Cardinals started as one of the top preseason teams and believe they can deliver on that early-season promise in the weeks ahead.
The predictive metrics still have faith in Pat Kelce’s squad.
Despite missing star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. for three weeks with a hip injury, his potential return for the tournament makes them a team to watch beyond the initial rounds.
Nevertheless, Louisville’s main struggle has been that while they’ve beaten every team they were expected to, they’ve fallen short against stronger opponents. March could just be their chance to turn things around.
