The EUR/USD pair has had a tough time capitalizing on this week’s recovery, bouncing back from the 1.1415-1.1410 range, which marks the lowest point since August 2025. Currently, it’s fluctuating in a tight range during the Asian session on Wednesday, trading just below the mid-1.1500s. Traders seem to be holding back, likely waiting for the central bank announcements before committing to any direction.
This evening, the US Federal Reserve is slated to announce its decision at the conclusion of a two-day meeting, with the European Central Bank’s policy update expected on Thursday. Market participants are keeping an eye out for hints regarding future interest rate movements, especially given the rising energy prices linked to the ongoing war, which could impact economic growth and inflation.
The EUR/USD pair has dipped below its 200-hour simple moving average at around 1.1547, which is constraining any recovery efforts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62; while this suggests some positive momentum, it’s not yet at overbought levels, indicating there’s strength, but it might not continue strongly. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is just below the signal line, close to the zero line, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum coinciding with a dip from the long-term average.
On the upside, immediate resistance is identified at the 50.0% retracement level of 1.1539, which stems from a high of 1.1666 to a low of 1.1413. A clear break above this would open the door to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and the 100-period SMA around 1.1580.
For those looking at the downside, initial support sits at the Fibonacci 38.2% level of 1.1509, just above the 23.6% level of 1.1473. This area might have stronger pressure due to a previous intraday low. If prices drop decisively below 1.1473, it could lead to a swing low around 1.1413. Conversely, maintaining a trade above 1.1569 would shift the focus back to the resistance zone at 1.1612-1.1666.
