Beware of These Outfielders in Fantasy Baseball Drafts
When it comes to fantasy baseball, most articles emphasize who to draft but often gloss over the players to avoid. It’s crucial to recognize which outfielders are genuinely on the upswing and which might just be riding a wave of luck.
In the early draft stages, the temptation to select a “name brand” player can feel comforting. However, several veteran outfielders are being picked very early based on their past performance instead of their potential for the coming season. Many of these players simply don’t have the capacity to replicate their previous success.
Aiming for last year’s results is a surefire way to sabotage a team, especially when stats indicate a steep decline due to age or health issues that are unusual and not likely to be repeated.
Right now, George Springer stands out as a player to steer clear of. After a notable performance in his 35-year-old season, where he recorded a 161 OPS+ and a .309 batting average, he was ranked among the top outfielders. However, digging deeper, it’s evident that his impressive stats are not sustainable, as his physical abilities have waned.
It’s hard to believe he’ll maintain a batting average that’s 30 points above his career norm, especially since his bat speed has diminished with age. Drafting someone with a career-high season at this stage of their career seldom yields positive results.
Byron Buxton, on the other hand, exemplifies the idea of “fool’s gold” in fantasy leagues. His 2025 performance included 126 games played and 35 home runs, alongside a perfect record in stolen bases. But, realistically, expecting such health going forward seems impractical given his injury history.
Buxton’s aggressive play style combined with past soft tissue injuries means that every game is akin to borrowing time. His base running success, though impressive, stands out as an anomaly that likely won’t hold.
As his draft position ascends into the top 40, he’s being valued at a price that necessitates near-perfect health—something he’s managed just twice in his decade-long career.
Christian Yelich is another player facing potential decline this season. While playing 150 games in 2025 is promising, his hitting metrics tell a less rosy story. His strikeout rate saw a concerning uptick of 25%, and both his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity dropped to pre-MVP levels.
Yelich has increasingly leaned on a high BABIP and a strategy focused on ground balls, which may not be viable against improving defenses. As his speed decreases, those singles won’t replace the lost power.
When drafting outfielders early, finding a high floor is essential. But for Springer, Buxton, and Yelich, that stability is faltering as they transition from premier run producers to veterans reliant on volume. Avoiding these players at their current hefty costs can create room for younger talent still in their prime.
