Pakistan’s Balancing Act Amid Iran Conflict

As tensions rise with Iran, Pakistan finds itself in a delicate position, trying to maintain a balance that seems increasingly difficult to manage.

So far, Islamabad has adopted a cautious diplomatic approach, condemning the attacks on Iran while advocating for de-escalation. However, analysts express concern that it might not be able to stay neutral amidst competing pressures.

“Pakistan is trying to act as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran, but it’s not very convincing,” noted Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Their history of avoiding military involvement isn’t impressive.”

Central to the rising tensions is a new defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, stating that any aggression against either nation will be considered a threat to both. This deal, perceived as one of Pakistan’s key defense strategies, ties it closely to Riyadh, potentially placing it at odds with Iran.

Pakistan already has military personnel in Saudi Arabia for training and support, asserting its commitment. Mosharraf Zaidi, the spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Foreign Media, stated, “Pakistan is a geographical part of South and Central Asia and also of the broader Gulf/MENA region. We’ve always aimed for peace, dialogue, and order, understanding the destructive impact of war.”

Shortly after the conflict erupted, General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief, made an urgent visit to Saudi Arabia. Discussions there covered a joint response to the attacks from Iran—the first significant test of the new agreement.

Pakistan’s partnership with Saudi Arabia is vital, offering significant economic support. The kingdom is adapting its energy supplies in light of the fuel disruptions affecting Pakistan, which heavily relies on imports.

Yet, maintaining a good relationship with Iran is equally crucial for Pakistan. The two share a long border and have established extensive trade and religious connections. With the second-largest Shia community worldwide, Pakistan’s ties to Iran deepen further, especially given recent unrest following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Staying in touch with Iran is essential to manage internal tensions and prevent insurgencies from the Baloch community. Economically, Iran is also significant for Pakistan, which is currently navigating a severe financial crisis. The two countries are aiming for trade worth $10 billion by 2028.

Amid the ongoing conflict, Pakistan’s foreign minister has maintained open communication with his Iranian counterpart. Recently, a Pakistani oil tanker successfully navigated the often-blocked Strait of Hormuz, marking a potential breakthrough for safe passage as analysts noted it was the first non-Iranian vessel to do so since tensions heightened. Further shipments to Pakistan are expected soon.

However, as the situation continues to develop, analysts warn Pakistan’s capacity for neutrality may be diminishing. Recently, Pakistan supported a Gulf-led UN resolution condemning regional aggression, marking a shift in its stance towards Iran.

Iran’s foreign minister has since called for regional coordination, communicating with Pakistan, Türkiye, and Egypt. Meanwhile, Pakistan is also managing its relationship with the U.S., another crucial ally.

During Trump’s presidency, Pakistan has sought to strengthen ties with the United States, even being mentioned as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Concerns are emerging from Washington about Pakistan’s role; White House press secretary Caroline Levitt noted ongoing assessments regarding Islamabad’s influence in support of Iran, mentioning India as a favorable ally.

The recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi to Israel has added another layer of pressure on India’s position.

Zaidi emphasized, “Our commitment to peace isn’t contradictory. Pakistan’s strong ties with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China illustrate that commitment.” Until now, Pakistan has played a pivotal role in mediating to resolve the ongoing conflict, leveraging its relationships across the region.

High-level talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives are reportedly slated for this weekend in Islamabad, showcasing Pakistan’s importance in the situation. Fitton-Brown mentioned that with the Taliban alienating Islamabad since 2021, there are few remaining points of contention between Pakistan and the U.S., allowing it to serve as a potential ally against terrorism.

The escalating war could not come at a worse time for Pakistan’s military, which is already shoring up its defenses. Tensions with India remain fraught, with frequent skirmishes along the borders and increasing civilian casualties from drone strikes in Afghanistan, which is becoming another source of concern.

Pakistan had recently been in “all-out war” just before the Iran conflict erupted, suggesting an unrelenting cycle of violence with no signs of abating following a recent attack in Kabul.

Zaidi articulated that “the geography and history of the region explain Pakistan’s rejection of India’s bid for hegemony. We’re striving to end support for terrorist organizations from the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.”

Any instability in Pakistan would be detrimental on a regional and global scale, as Fitton-Brown noted, emphasizing the unthinkable reality of a nuclear-armed state under extremist control.