Moshitora: Japan’s Response to a Second Trump Presidency
“Moshitora,” a Japanese phrase that translates to “Hello Trump?”, emerged during the 2016 U.S. election. It symbolized how Japanese leaders were grappling with the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump as a candidate.
Now, as we enter early 2024, the phrase has resurfaced again—not just out of curiosity but loaded with a sense of caution and real concern. What implications would a second term for Trump have on Japan’s security, economic ties with the U.S., and its position in the Indo-Pacific region?
The Japan-U.S. alliance is venturing into a phase focused primarily on defense. This is a pressing issue. With the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, maintaining trust between Washington and Tokyo has become more complicated. The first term of Trump’s presidency highlighted vulnerabilities; for instance, how quickly supply chains can be leveraged in strategic power plays, merging economic policy with national security.
For a long time, Western policymakers believed that strong trade relationships would alleviate geopolitical tensions. The thinking was that when nations are economically entwined, conflicts would be too costly to pursue. This belief has collapsed. Instead of easing competition, supply chains have become instruments of leverage.
Moreover, technology, once seen mostly as a tool for economic growth, has morphed into a strategic asset. Resources like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths have transcended their roles in commodity markets, positioning themselves at the heart of national security strategies.
This shift extends beyond trade policies; entire industries now regarded as reliable have transformed into strategic points of tension. Governments are starting to view commerce through a lens of power, where controlling the supply chain and access can fundamentally reshape global influence.
The first Trump administration accelerated these realizations. Washington began confronting dependencies that had been overlooked for too long. Policymakers gradually transformed instinctive reactions into structured strategies. Alliances evolved; they are no longer just military accords but now resemble economic security networks that depend on trustworthy supply lines and robust manufacturing capabilities.
The consequences of these changes have materialized, as seen with the agreement signed between Japan and the United States in October 2025. This framework aims to secure supply chains for critical minerals and rare earths, with a clear intention of reducing reliance on Chinese processing dominance.
In Africa, the risks are vividly apparent. At the start of 2026, Glencore is set to enter a non-binding agreement to retain a 40% stake in its Mutanda and Kamoto copper and cobalt mines, collaborating with the U.S.-backed Orion Critical Minerals Consortium to diversify supply away from China.
These mines stand among the largest in terms of producing essential metals for future technologies. The deal is indicative of efforts to ensure a broader range of suppliers, steering clear of China’s influence.
The U.S. is actively bolstering partnerships in Africa while Japan fosters its own relationships with resource-rich nations, indicating a multifaceted approach to securing resources. It’s about more than just raw materials; it encompasses industrial resilience, strategic independence, and control over technologies that will define future power dynamics. The pressing question is: who will offer long-term support, and who will merely chase immediate needs?
Japan’s strategy reflects a deeper understanding. Projects like diversifying supply chains, investing in semiconductor manufacturing, and strengthening ties with resource-rich countries in Africa and Southeast Asia indicate that Tokyo recognizes the foundational role of industrial capacity in national strength. I’d say Japan perhaps anticipated these shifts earlier than Washington.
The Japan-U.S. alliance has indeed moved into a new realm, focusing almost singularly on defense. The big questions remain—who will collaborate on projects, who will extract resources together, and who will fortify the industrial foundations necessary for future technological competition? The choices made now will significantly influence which economies and militaries can maintain competitiveness moving forward.
Moshitora began as a simple phrase in the context of a single American election. However, the resurgence of interest in 2024 signals a warning that Japan is already starting to heed. The real question is whether Washington will respond with the same level of clarity, determination, and foresight.
